NEWSLETTER
Thanks to the two flunked physicals that preceded it, you couldn’t AUTOMATICALLY assume the Carlos Correa deal with the Minnesota Twins would be the one that finally got over the hump. But there were several reasons to believe it would, from the previously-existing relationship to the past medical reviews to the simple fact that Correa was going to run out of options at some point.
Perhaps the biggest clue this one was getting done was that the Twins had dramatically slashed their offer from the previous 10 years and $285 million guaranteed to just six years and $200 million guaranteed, with some health-related vesting options from there. That big cut meant that the Twins had ALREADY contemplated the ankle issue – either in actuality or as mere leverage – when coming up with this new offer.
Sure enough, the physical is already complete and the deal is reportedly getting done officially today. The Twins, themselves, are teasing it:
Fine. Nothing we didn’t really know or expect once the reporting about the Twins got really hot late on Monday night.
Here’s the part I find most interesting today, though:
I’m sorry, did you say the Mets reportedly dropped their guaranteed offer to six years and $157.5 million?! That’s *HALF* of the deal to which they’d originally agreed, a deal that Mets owner Steve Cohen was out there talking about how he doesn’t care about spending and this was the final piece the Mets needed and so on and so forth!
In other words, after the medical review, even the Mets thought the risks embedded in Correa’s surgically-repaired ankle were so significant that they completely eviscerated their offer. We could surmise based on the Twins’ deal that the Mets were including a ton of protection language, but a 50% cut. Yowsa.
For me, among other things, that recasts the who Giants part of this saga even further. We already knew that they had sincere reasons to be concerned about proceeding with their 13-year, $350 million deal. And we knew that Boras and Correa quickly turned to Steve Cohen and the Mets to get SOMETHING in place before the market for Correa soured. But now I’m wondering if there’s something we didn’t know: just how bad the Giants thought the ankle problem was. Did the Mets chop Correa’s offer in half primarily because they (thought) they had all the leverage? Or did they do it because, no seriously, the ankle situation is scary? And did the Giants not renegotiate primarily because they didn’t get a chance? Or was it because Boras already knew that the Giants, too, were going to massively cut their offer, and not just negotiate at the margins?
Long story short, I kinda want to take back a little of my meatballing yesterday about the Cubs not getting involved here at the zero hour.
For one thing, I was kinda hot in the moment and forgot that Correa doesn’t WANT to play third base; he was merely willing to do it with the Mets because he wanted to play with Francisco Lindor. For now another thing, if the STEVE COHEN METS think that $200 million guaranteed is 30%(!) too high for Correa now knowing what they know about the ankle, it’s a little harder for me to say it is nuts that the Cubs didn’t top the Twins’ offer.
The Twins had a relational and informational advantage already, and the way this played out – again, especially the redrafted numbers – SCREAM red flags that are even brighter red than I realized yesterday. Or allowed myself to realize in the moment. We’re fans. It happens.
