NEWSLETTER
I don’t know exactly why I’m waking up and choosing violence on this cold Saturday morning. The vibes around the team are good. Spring Training has been pretty successful. And my six-month old even gave us a full night sleep last night. But this is just too juicy to pass up. And not all my pain is healed.
For the first time ever, Baseball America has graded every MLB regular on the traditional scouting 20-80 scale. And with those grades, they’ve created their version of the top-100 players *exclusively in terms of expected impact in 2023.* In other words, there’s no projection or contract value or prospect status for which to account.
Bottom line, will you be good this season?
With some simple math (30 teams, 100 spots), we can say each team should have, on average, about 3 guys on the list. But sadly, if not unsurprisingly, the Chicago Cubs have landed just ONE player on the entire top-100: Dansby Swanson. And not particularly high up: Dansby Swanson, #86, BA Grade: 55.
To make matters worse, Swanson is the first of 15 players with a 55 grade, meaning he’s basically as low as the 100th player on the top-100, which happens to be Eloy Jimenez. And, hey, actually, now that I look at it, there are a LOT of former Cubs on this list.
34. Yu Darvish: BA Grade 70
45. Dylan Cease: 65
70. Kyle Schwarber: 60
72. Kris Bryant: 60
74. Willson Contreras: 60
100. Eloy Jimenez: 55
Darvish and Schwarber were shipped out in what was effectively COVID-inspired salary saving maneuvers. And both were pretty big whiffs. Since leaving the Cubs, Darvish has made 58 starts over two seasons, earning a 3.60 ERA with 7.1 fWAR over 350.1 IP. Of the four Padres prospects the Cubs got back for Darvish, only Owen Caissie has taken a legitimate step forward as a potential top prospect. Meanwhile, in those same two seasons, Schwarber has hit 78 home runs while slashing .238/.344/.525 (135 wRC+).
Another way to say that? Those would have been the Cubs best pitcher and hitter over the last two seasons.
We’e had the Cease/Eloy/Quintana conversation a billion times, so I’m not going to go over that one. And actually, I think we’re all pretty set on the Bryant narrative, as well. We know the details and understand the context. Contreras is a little more fresh, and the short-version is the Cubs chose to go in a different direction for the catcher position this year, prioritizing the non-offensive, soft-skills (receiving, framing, game calling, development) with their veteran backup combo of Yan Gomes and Tucker Barnhart. We’ll miss Contreras’ bat behind the plate – and dread his first Cardinal homer at Wrigley Field – but whatever. I do understand the thinking, at least. And Contreras has already begun his role as Cubs heel.
Anyway, I suggest checking out BA’s grades/rankings, because it’s pretty fun to peruse the list and see where maybe your expectations differ from their scouting reality. It looks like they’ve done a pretty good job (especially giving Jose Ramirez the love he doesn’t usually get, but always deserves).
And if you want more of this, ESPN also released their top-100 players, with just Dansby Swanson (#54) showing up for the Cubs.
Like BA, ESPN had Cease (43), Darvish (80), Schwarber (81), Contreras (94), Jimenez (100) on the list, with only Bryant absent.
