Ian Happ Extension Notes: Why Now, Deal Structure, Offensive Core, Projections, More

When a long-time Chicago Cub signs a multi-year extension, there’s a lot to get into. I offered my thoughts on the three-year, $61 million Ian Happ extension yesterday, but there are a lot of other things to share …

  • First, a little housekeeping on the contract. Joel Sherman reports that the deal, which starts next year, comes with a full no-trade clause. The structure is a $3 million signing bonus, $20 million in 2024, $20 million in 2025, and $18 million in 2026. And you already know that it’s $20.3 million in AAV for luxury tax purposes.
  • Part of why this deal happened is as simple as it gets: Ian Happ loves being in Chicago on the Cubs. He’s said it a million times. And this was the deal the two sides could agree on, so all is well that ends well.
  • It sounds like Happ would’ve preferred a longer deal, but that’s where the Cubs preferred to preserve flexibility (understandable on both sides). So Happ maybe got a higher AAV than you’d otherwise expect, and that was the compromise. “That’s part of an extension, there is compromise,” Happ said, per The Athletic. “For me, it’s compromising on structure, it’s compromising on terms. Taking something that is three years and runs through (my) baseball prime, (I’ll have) to go back on the market at 32. But that was my concession to be here. I really, really wanted to continue to wear this uniform. I really wanted to play with this group of guys. With Nico, Seiya, Taillon, Dansby and the guys that are going to be here.”
  • I thought this was particularly awesome. As Ian Happ took the field yesterday, the Cubs announced the deal on the video board – so he got to run out to the left field bleachers as fans were being informed he was there to stay:
  • Nico Hoerner told the Tribune that he was “incredibly happy” that Happ got this deal from the Cubs. “It’s significant extending players that started in this organization,” he said. “I think it means more here, and Ian is someone who was here for the last great teams, has had incredible highs in this game and struggled, like we all have, and found himself in a place now that’s as consistent as I’ve ever seen mentally from a player I’ve played with.”
  • A fun exchange between former teammates and current left fielders:
  • Part of the importance here for the Cubs is in having four key offensive players locked in through at least 2026, in Happ, Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki, and Dansby Swanson. From Jed Hoyer (The Athletic): “I really wanted to get both these deals done. As people, as players, I feel really great about — I don’t know exactly how Rossy’s going to make out the lineup card, but you can see a situation where those top four guys in the lineup are all prime age, they’re all signed through at least 2026. I’m really thrilled to have that stability. This was certainly a priority to get these deals done.”
  • If you were curious about the projections, ZiPS likes Happ to decline from a 2.5 WAR player in 2024 to a 1.7 WAR player in 2026, as the bat drops from above average to just about average. I think the Cubs would probably gladly take a version of this deal where Happ is, overall, an above average player in 2024 and 2025, and then a complementary guy in 2026. That’s not what you’d ROOT for, of course, as you’d like to believe Happ has one more step forward in him this year (which would raise that ZiPS baseline for next year). But that wouldn’t really be a terrible outcome on a shorter-term extension like this.
  • Happ also provides that clubhouse value, which is always harder to quantify, but is not zero. From Hoyer (ESPN): “I’ve seen such a change in him over the last year in terms of stepping into a leadership role. His preparation to play is outstanding, both from a physical preparation, and also he does everything he can think of to win a game.”
  • More from Hoyer on why he wanted Happ to stay:
  • Kerry Wood with the congrats:
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

    You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

    Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

    Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

    The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

    Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

    I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

    There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

    I Dug Deep on the Cubs 2024 Schedule (And I Like What I See)

    Finally, with Cody Bellinger in the fold, we can start focusing more seriously on the season ahead. So today, I thought we'd take a look at the Cubs 2024 schedule. You can flip through the Cubs 2024 schedule right here...

    Here’s What I’m Betting on the Cubs for Opening Day

    I get it. Sports betting isn't for everyone — like, say, the interpreter for an international baseball superstar — but some of us quite enjoy it! If you are one of those people, this article is for you. Below, I'm...

    WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

    The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

    Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

    Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

    Why Craig Counsell Wanted Miles Mastrobuoni on the Cubs’ Bench

    I don't know why Miles Mastrobuoni bugs some folks, but it's probably heavily-weighted toward his small-sample, bad-batted-ball-luck start last year, and that time he didn't dive while playing in right field. It can be hard to shake initial impressions, I...

    Kinda Sounds Like Craig Counsell May Have a Set Top Three in the Batting Order

    New Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell has said, generally, his batting order philosophy is the very simplistic (and very correct): just get your best hitters the most at bats. Sure, there's some play in that to set up good match-ups,...

    Latest News

    Los Angeles Chargers Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

    The Los Angeles Chargers enter the offseason with a new era dawning. After a disappointing season, they landed a marquee hire in Jim Harbaugh, fresh off his national championship win with Michigan. Hailed as the top coaching prospect, Harbaugh brings a...

    Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

    Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

    Rangers vs. Cubs Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

    The Texas Rangers (0-0) begin their 2024 season with a home game against the Chicago Cubs (0-0) on Thursday, with first pitch at 7:35 PM ET.The Rangers will give the nod to Nathan Eovaldi versus the Cubs and Justin Steele.Rangers...

    Best NBA Prop Bets Today – March 28, 2024

    The Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks take the court for one of two exciting matchups on the NBA slate today.Looking for NBA player prop bets for today's games? This article includes NBA player props for every matchup, so take...

    UNC vs Alabama Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

    We have a great matchup in the Sweet 16 between (1) North Carolina and (4) Alabama. Let's break down the odds, ATS records, and more for UNC vs Alabama as March Madness continues. Read More: Today's schedule and upset picks...

    Seattle Seahawks Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

    The Seattle Seahawks turn the page on a historic era as they enter the 2024 season without Pete Carroll at the helm for the first time since 2010. Carroll's impact on the franchise is undeniable, crafting a period of sustained...

    Who Is In The Sweet 16? Updated Bracket, Odds to Win, and More

    It has been a great March Madness so far and we have more great matchups in the Sweet 16. Check out what teams are in the Sweet 16, odds, and more as the college basketball season rolls on. Latest March...

    The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

    You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

    Today’s March Madness Schedule: Updated Bracket, TV Channels for Every Game

    The Sweet 16 is here as March Madness brings us some great matchups tonight! Check out today's March Madness schedule along with game times, TV channels, and more as the college basketball season's biggest games continue. The Sweet 16 Begins...

    2024 MLB Mock Draft: Opening Day Mock Draft Projections

    Happy Opening Day! As the new baseball season begins, and hope is present among most fanbases, why not take a look at a new 2024 MLB Mock Draft? Various mock drafts meticulously analyze potential picks, emphasizing the abundance of talent...

    more cubs news