NEWSLETTER
MLB Pipeline has revealed a substantial update to their top 100 prospect list, which makes sense after all the early-season promotions and a month and a half of minor league data/scouting to go over.
It’s arguably a mixed bag of news for the Chicago Cubs farm system, which is back to having only three names on the list, though they are generally rising:
First, on the positive side, Pete Crow-Armstrong moved into the top 15 after his strong start to the season at Double-A Tennessee (insert note about the sticky ball, too!). And Cade Horton had one of the biggest jumps on the list, going from 89 up to 68. Horton was too dominant for Low-A, so he’s now going to spend some time settling in at High-A. After his tough first start there last week, I will reiterate that he pitched so little in college that you’re talking about a guy who is closer to a “high school” draft pick than a college one, so the fact that a bump to High-A was even necessary at all is impressive. Scouts seem to agree.
Kevin Alcántara rounds out the Cubs’ top 100 entrants, now sitting at number 75. The 20-year-old center fielder is hitting .226/.258/.374/77 wRC+ in his first go at High-A/in the early-season cold of the Midwest. That’s not what you want to see, but then again, he’s been about league average after the first week, which really drags down his numbers. I have plenty of patience for Alcántara.
On the flip side of the generally good news in the top 100 is that bad news that I mentioned: Brennen Davis, previously 84, has now been bounced.
It’s not a surprise, given the 23-year-old outfielder’s slow start at Triple-A Iowa – on the heels of what happened last year – but it is still a bummer: “After dealing with back issues for much of 2022, Brennen Davis has surpassed 300 plate appearances at Triple-A without showing the same levels of power he exhibited at the lower levels, causing his stock to slip.”
If you are looking for optimism on Davis, it goes something like this: after back surgery last year, and a setback in the fall, Davis was still working on getting his full strength back this spring. The strikeout rate is way down, which is often something you see before the power comes (i.e., a guy works on getting the contact rate up before working on improving swing decisions and more aggressively pursuing power). The numbers are flat out not good – .196/.320/.299/65 wRC+ – but if you squint, you see that they are just about league average over the past month. Progress? Here’s hoping.
Then there’s the other bit of bad news for the Cubs: no other prospect made the top 100. Who could have or should have after the start to the season? Well, I could make the argument for a couple of the early-season success stories, but there’s only one I would offer with my full throat: Ben Brown.
The 23-year-old righty was already a top ten Cubs prospect coming into the season, and all he’s done since is throw 30.2 innings of 0.59 ERA ball across six Double-A and Triple-A starts. His strikeout rate is 39.5% against a walk rate of just 9.2%. His two Triple-A starts, in particular, were outstanding. The stuff rates very well, the makeup is there, and he’s on the cusp of getting a big league look-see later this year. I can see a top 100 prospect there, and I’m a little surprised he didn’t slide in.
I wasn’t alone in that surprise, as Greg Zumach writes at North Side Bound: “The name that feels absent is Ben Brown. While it’s early in the year it’s clear Brown has the type of arsenal, success, and underlying data to suggest he should be in the Top 100 prospects in baseball. It’s hard to think of a team that wouldn’t jump at the opportunity to add a near ready MLB starting pitcher to their ranks.”
I’m gonna call Brown number 101 for now.
Meanwhile, a guy like Christopher Morel doesn’t qualify as a prospect anymore, but he’s showing that he’s got that kind of talent. Matt Mervis worked his way up to the big leagues and was probably a borderline guy before that, too. And then there’s Miguel Amaya, who very well might get some loud calls for top 100 consideration later this year if he does at Iowa what he was doing at Tennessee (especially after all the praise he got from the big league pitching staff about his work behind the plate).
