You could argue that it was a terrible time for me and my boy to come to Chicago to experience the Cubs. I prefer to think it was perfect timing, because I can just focus on having a nice time with my son, and not sweat the outcomes of baseball games that, if I try really hard, can’t hurt me.
I can certainly observe the negatives, though …
To that end, the Cubs lost last night’s game to the Reds, despite holding an early 4-1 lead, because Jameson Taillon just can’t stop giving up hits and Michael Fulmer just can’t stop giving up home runs. It’s still early in the signings – certainly for Taillon’s four-year deal – but they have been an unquestioned disaster so far. Alarmingly, these are the types of signings the Cubs of the last decade have NOT seen fail so completely: capable veterans, specifically targeted by the Cubs, and expected to be leaned on heavily as core parts of the pitching staff. None of that is to say these guys can’t bounce back from here, or that the Cubs have somehow lost their free agent pitching mojo; it is to say only that we aren’t used to seeing it quite like this.
By the way, the Cubs now have the worst record in the National League. Maybe they don’t have the power or the speed?
Now, if you want to look at that and focus on the “4.5” part, and say it’s not like the Cubs are completely out of this thing, I’m not going to crap all over your positivity. It’s impossible for ME to feel that way at THIS moment, because it’s not like we’re seeing a whole lot of hopeful signs over the past month+. But anyone else who can set aside the horror show and can reset on any given day, I say God bless. And you wouldn’t be wrong, because 4.5 games is not insurmountable, even in last place. But the Cubs need to be MUCH closer by the end of June, otherwise we all know what planning begins.
For the record, I don’t think these Cubs are actually the worst team in the National League, in terms of true talent level. Soon, that won’t matter, though.
Taillon’s take on his latest rough outing, via Cubs.com:
“That was probably a closer version to myself and where I need to be and where I should expect to be going forward,” Taillon said. “Not so much results wise, but more just like pitch package stuff, conviction, aggression in the strike zone. I thought that was a lot closer to where I need to be, but we’re still not obviously quite there yet. I thought it was a good step ….
“It’s one of those things [where] I want to be able to throw a lot of pitches when I need to,” Taillon said. “But at the same time, let’s remember what my strengths are — four-seam fastballs, curveballs, sliders. And then on top of that, I can add a cutter, add a two-seam. I felt like maybe I got a little bit away from who I was at my core (during his previous starts).”
I could probably talk myself into laying out how he’s right about that, especially given the way the runs scored off of him yesterday. But, for today, I’ll admit being a little tired of trying to find the numbers behind the numbers to soften the blow of disappointment. I want to see some results. I’m sure he does, too.
Speaking of which, I’m not so sure I would find this as comforting (Marquee):
From a stuff perspective, Taillon’s pitches haven’t changed much – in a lot of cases, they’ve actually slightly improved. Based on Stuff+, a metric that grades pitches based on velocity, break, arm angle and release extension, where 100 is league average, here’s how Taillon’s pitches rank compared to last year:
Pitch type – 2023 grade/2022 grade
4-seam fastball – 89/101
Sinker – 103/95
Cutter – 100/97
Slider – 115/100
Curveball – 120/108
Changeup – 85/90
That’s partially why the Cubs aren’t overly concerned with the slow start.
Having your secondaries improve is all well and good, but if your base fastball goes from average to well-below-average, and you historically had used it 30-40% of the time, that’s actually a pretty significant problem!
Speaking of which, since I led off with Taillon and Fulmer, it’s impossible not to think about the fact that those two added a sweeper with the Cubs this offseason, and both have since seen the pitch values on their fastball AND slider decline from last year to this year. Maybe that’s just a small sample thing, but it’s not exactly encouraging about the approach.
To add insult to all the injurious play, the Cubs last night gave out Billy Williams bobbleheads with the wrong uniform number:
The Cubs say they are aware of the error, which they of course regret. It shouldn’t have happened, and they know that. They’re going to make replacement bobbleheads available to fans who had tickets last night, and they’ll reach out to those fans to make those future arrangements. These things happen, but obviously when they happen at a time when the team is doing so much disappointing on the field, fans are a lot less laid back about it.
This felt concerningly appropriate in its timing, and boy do I hope the cosmos was wrong: