I don’t want to take the wind out of your sails, as it’s perfectly acceptable to celebrate Marcus Stroman’s complete and utter domination of Tampa Bay on Memorial Day. Buuuuuut there’s still a lot of work to be done. In case you didn’t notice, the Cubs lineup scored just one run on three hits (all singles) and one walk in that game, which is not exactly an inspiring performance … especially on the heels of being swept by the Reds.
Indeed, before yesterday’s game, David Ross was already talking about changing up the Cubs lineup, seemingly just for the sake of it (the classic “we need a spark” explanation). And I don’t think that was wrong/nor should it stop. You never want to reach this point in a season, but sometimes it’s the only card left to play … well, besides the dreaded “team meeting.” That’s when you know it’s really over.
In any case, here’s my change-it-up concepts for the Cubs lineup. I’ve got one for a typical matchup against a righty and one against a lefty. We’ll just assume Cody Bellinger is coming back in a couple weeks (though who knows …). And in the meantime, you can just replace him with Mike Tauchman, who’s been quietly solid anyway, sporting a .424 OBP.
Change-It-Up Cubs Lineup(s)
vs. RHP
- Cody Bellinger/Mike Tauchman, CF (L)
- Seiya Suzuki, RF (R)
- Dansby Swanson, SS (R)
- Ian Happ, LF (S)
- Nico Hoerner, 2B (R)
- Matt Mervis, 1B (L)
- Chris Morel, DH (R)
- Patrick Wisdom, 3B (R)
- Yan Gomes, C (R)
Bench: Trey Mancini, Tucker Barnhart, Miles Mastrobuoni, Edwin Rios
Nico Hoerner has gone through a bit of a prolonged slump here lately, slashing just .205/.271/.318 (62 wRC+) since the beginning of May. He’s still walking (8.3%), barely striking out (10.4 K%), and making hard contact (48.7 hard%) during this stretch. But the 3.7 degree launch angle has led to a 48.7% groundball rate. So while my intention is definitely NOT to hide him or punish him for what’s probably MOSTLY a BABIP-fueled slump (.211), moving him down in the Cubs lineup does feel like a reasonable first step.
There’s also the fact that your leadoff hitter and cleanup hitter pretty much HAVE to change if you want the lineup to have that “Whoa, this is different!” feel to it. Which, again, is kind of the entire point.
So against most righties, I’m putting Bellinger (Tauchman) up top. And I’m following him up with Seiya Suzuki, who has settled in with consistency. I don’t think there’s any reason you wouldn’t want Suzuki in the lineup’s premier spot, which is the two-hole.
I also don’t want to drop Dansby Swanson down too far, because he’s been pretty great all year. But I do want him and Happ to move from where they were for maximum newness. So we’ll go Bellinger-righty-righty-Happ, and worry about that perfect lefty/righty balance a different day.
Then we get to the second-half of the lineup, which I like to think of a new top of the order: Hoerner (R), Mervis (L), Morel (R), Wisdom (R), Gomes (R). Each guy has had a really nice streak at one point or another this season, but all of them are kind of cold right now. I could be convinced of a lot of different orders here, but this is the one I liked most.
On days when Wisdom can’t start (i.e. versus high-velo, up-in-the-zone righties), you can just roll the dice with Morel at third and move Mancini to DH. It’s not ideal for a lot of reasons, especially Morel’s defense at third. But an imperfect roster requires imperfect lineup solutions.
Frankly, I wanted to get even wackier with this lineup, like moving Morel or Mervis way up into the top-4, but I just don’t think either guy is really ready for that just yet. Maybe one day soon. But not today.
vs. LHP
- Seiya Suzuki, RF (R)
- Nico Hoerner, 2B (R)
- Dansby Swanson, SS (R)
- Patrick Wisdom, 3B (R)
- Cody Bellinger, CF (L)
- Yan Gomes, C (R)
- Ian Happ, LF (S)
- Trey Mancini, 1B (R)
- Chris Morel, DH
Bench: Tucker Barnhart, Miles Mastrobuoni, Edwin Rios, Matt Mervis
Let’s get weird! Leadoff-man Seiya Suzuki gets the Cubs going, Hoerner moves him over (with a hit, of course), and then Swanson and Wisdom get a chance to do some damage against left-handed pitching.
I’m motivated to move Yan Gomes up even further, but I don’t want to rely on him for offense and Bellinger has actually been better against lefties than righties this year, for whatever that’s worth in a small sample.
Happ has not replicated his 2022 success against LHP yet this season, so he moves way down, but he’s still someone you want in the lineup every night. Meanwhile, I think this is the best time to get Mancini involved, as he’s handled lefties just fine this year (110 wRC+) and for his career (112 wRC+). Right now, I think he should probably be starting only against lefties and against those righties that Wisdom can’t handle, as we discussed above.
This leaves the Cubs with an all-lefty bench, which isn’t necessarily ideal. But it also gives you a lot of options for the inevitable righty relief matchup later in the game, no matter where you are in the lineup.
***
Now, both lineups are pretty far from ideal, but again … that’s what happens when you’re routinely failing to score enough runs to win games with consistency. So if David Ross still wants to change things up just for the sake of changing things up, then this is how I’d do it. What about you?