Miguel Amaya had another big game at Iowa yesterday, and is now hitting .311/.456/.467/141 wRC+ through his first 14 games at Triple-A. His slugging could be quite a bit higher, in fact, as he’s twice hit the ball off the top of the wall. His strikeout rate is a very reasonable 22.8%, and his walk rate is 19.3%.
Given that he’s hit at every level, and is now hitting again in a return from an injury, I think there’s little reason to doubt that, long-term, Amaya can be a league-average bat (or better) in the big leagues. Further, given how doting the pitchers and coaches have been about his catching abilities (including in his brief fill-in time in the big leagues), I think we can start to have a lot of confidence that he’s going to be the guy next year, probably paired with Yan Gomes. The Cubs just need the 24-year-old backstop to stay healthy, which obviously has been the question in his career. So far, so good this year.
The nearer-term question, though: if everyone soon agrees that Amaya is going to be the guy next year, at what point do you just flip the switch and swap him out with Tucker Barnhart on this year’s big league roster? You don’t want to do it TOO soon, because you still want to preserve organizational depth. And I know the Cubs still really like Barnhart’s work with the pitchers. But doesn’t there come a point where you could improve for 2023 AND set Amaya (and the pitchers he’ll be paired with) up for more 2024 success by giving him a couple months in the big leagues this year?
Barnhart isn’t here for his offense, but there does come a level at which you’re doing more harm with the bat than good with the defense/receiving/game-calling/etc., and I’d say .164/.268/.180/33 wRC+ is just about it. Barnhart, 32, has never been great at the plate, but he’s coming off a big down year in 2022 with the Tigers, and has since given up switch-hitting in an attempt to be more productive from the left side. But despite that move and being HEAVILY platoon-protected, he’s been a dead spot in the lineup.
I don’t think this is a decision that is coming soon (note that Barnhart is owed $6.5 million total between this and next season … ), but I do think the conversation should be coming pretty soon.