NEWSLETTER
At 10 a.m. this morning, the first pitch of the Dominican Summer League season will be thrown, setting off an 11-week complex league season for the Cubs three rookie ball affiliates. The Cubs have two teams competing in the DSL and one in the Arizona Complex League, which will begin play at 8 p.m. this evening in Mesa.
These are the first and lowest rungs of the minor league ladder, with many players at the beginning of their professional careers, but they’re ready after a grueling past three months participating in Extended Spring Training.
Let’s discuss the names to look out for in those box scores, both in Arizona and at the Cubs Dominican complex…
ARIZONA COMPLEX LEAGUE
Last October, I was tipped off that there was a little-known player that might have been the Cubs best offensive player at their “Instructs,” an organized postseason camp with a fair number of exhibition games. It was Jefferson Rojas, who wasn’t completely anonymous given the $1 million bonus he’d received in International Free Agency, or the .303/.391/.407 batting line he’d posted in his pro debut in the DSL, but he certainly hadn’t yet become entrenched in prospect conversations. I ranked him 35th in our offseason prospect rankings on that tip, and found that others (including Lance Brozdowski and Arizona Phil) were hearing similar praise on the 18-year-old’s development in the organization.
There are certainly no victory laps to be had this early, but as we sit here on Opening Day, Rojas is a far-more-agreed-upon top storyline on the ACL roster. According to AZ Phil, Rojas hit .299/.381/.505 in a fantastic Extended Spring Training season, and I’ve recently heard more praise on a player the Cubs think is blossoming into a blue chipper.
Rojas is still listed at the 5-10 and 150 pounds that he was measured at upon signing, but don’t believe it for a second. He has significantly increased his physicality (and even height) in the organization, and has both power and arm strength that wasn’t necessarily forecasted a couple years ago. He’s been able to maintain the good feel that was always his best attribute while his body has changed, so he pairs good contact rates and sound footwork with his athletic gifts. I expect he’ll split time between shortstop and second base during the summer, and Phil thinks he could be one of the league’s top three prospects.
Here’s how I see the rest of the roster shaping up initially, but note that there are big error bars here. This roster will change significantly as the result of the MLB Draft, and it’s also the home for a large number of injury rehabs (for instance, Ed Howard might play a few games here to start). No place in pro baseball has roster fluidity quite like the ACL…
Projected ACL Lineup
- Ke’Shun Collier, CF
- Jefferson Rojas, SS
- Anderson Suriel, 1B
- Adan Sanchez, C
- Cristian More, LF
- Christopher Paciolla, 3B
- Jefferson Encarnacion, RF
- Alexis Hernandez, 2B
I won’t include a DH there, as it will be a revolving cast of characters between the bench players we’ll list below.
The other highly-ranked player on this roster besides Rojas is Adan Sanchez, the former $1.5 million bonus baby who has truly checked every developmental box in front of him since joining the organization. Sanchez posted a .451 OBP in his debut last summer in the DSL, put on good weight this winter (this kid looks more like a seasoned MLB catcher than a just-turned-18 rookie baller) and then posted a .852 OPS this spring in extended ball. Sanchez has the Miguel Amaya starter kit: burgeoning raw power, patient eye at the plate, catching experience dating back to his Little League days.
The Cubs will look for a breakout from 2022 third-round pick Christopher Paciolla, who is in the midst of a developmental year focusing on the weight room and professionalizing his plate approach. There’s a similar plan in place for Alexis Hernandez (Cristian’s brother), who like Paciolla could see time at any and every infield position.
I’m not convinced in my outfield choices here, because any of the three could move to Myrtle Beach at any moment (More and Encarnacion have already been there in 2023). But they’re in Arizona according to Phil, so we’ll run with it. Collier was the Cubs final pick in the 2022 Draft thanks to excellent speed, Encarnacion has impressed me this year with his physicality and More is one of those types that always finds a way to be productive.
Projected ACL Rotation
- Drew Gray, LH (kinda sorta on rehab)
- Carlos Garcia, LH
- Mason McGwire, RH
- Yenrri Rojas, RH
- Freilyn Silverio, RH
- Eligio Paredes, RH
I’m expecting we see Gray make a few appearances here before heading to Myrtle Beach, as he continues his return from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Internally, there are very high expectations for the prospect he could be, throwing harder with the same great spin than before surgery. But 2023 has moved a little slower than was anticipated during the offseason, so his outings will serve as important litmus tests on where his development stands.
McGwire is the pitching version of Paciolla, a well-regarded 2022 pick that has been assigned to live in the weight room this season. I’ve heard great things about his split-change, and if his velocity is popping into the mid 90s, he’ll become a formidable prospect quickly. Garcia missed the 2022 season for a PED suspension, but has a good performance track record when on the field.
(NOTE: I’m also expecting Luis Devers will make a couple appearances here as he works back from a non-surgical arm injury. But it’ll be a Tennessee assignment before too long.)
Projected ACL Bullpen
I’ve just included seven here, but the actual list of relievers could include another 10 names. There’s a lot of high velocity in this listing, with Rodriguez, Peters and Sierra all possessing high 90s velocity in their arms on the right day. Noriega and Peters were 2022 project draft picks, and while Noriega impressed in Spring Training, he could not find fastball feel in Myrtle Beach.
Machado, Perez and Aquino are all probably a little better than this level — I projected all three into A-ball in offseason depth charts — but are working back from some injury slowdowns and the Cubs want them to use the ACL as a confidence builder.
Projected ACL Bench
The Cubs are in the process of converting Hernandez — last year lauded as a sweet-swinging outfielder — to catcher, which is something to watch out for. I don’t expect he’ll actually get into games in that role until the second half of this season, but instead be a frequent DH and bullpen catcher.
Of the group, Lubo is the one to watch based on Phil’s incredibly helpful ExST numbers. The 19 year old popped eight extra-base hits in 82 PA, including three home runs, which was his total in two DSL seasons. Could be a guy that finds his way into the everyday lineup pretty quickly.
DOMINICAN SUMMER LEAGUE
The most interesting players in the Dominican Summer League are usually the ones most recently signed to seven-figure bonuses, and this year will be no exception.
As you may recall, the Cubs went into this IFA season with three big shortstop signings in tow: Derniche Valdez, Angel Cepeda, and Ludwing Espinoza. I ranked (and would still rank) Valdez as the top prospect of the group, but Cepeda has received some positive buzz from other prospect reporters. I do wonder if his broader scope of experience could have Cepeda ready to step forward as one of the better players in the league.
Two very interesting pitching signings that I’m interested in hearing more about are Emmanoel Madeira and Brander Guevara. Madeira is the rare Cubs signing out of Brazil, while Guevara is expected to sign this week:
