NEWSLETTER
Shohei Ohtani has now had his long-awaited “elbow procedure,” and we know a little more about what route they chose to go, and how it impacts his expected timelines.
Keeping in mind that Ohtani’s camp has all the incentive in the world to frame everything ahead of free agency in the most certain and optimistic terms, here’s the statement attributed to Ohtani’s surgeon, as released by Ohtani’s agent:
“The ultimate plan after deliberation with Shohei was to repair the issue at hand and to reinforce the healthy ligament in place while adding viable tissue for the longevity of the elbow,” Dr. ElAttrache said in the statement. “I expect full recovery and he’ll be ready to hit without any restrictions come Opening Day of 2024 and do both (hit and pitch) come 2025.”
All right. So there’s the planned timeline. Adjust your free agent pitches and approaches accordingly, teams.
I’ll be honest, I find it somewhat curious that the camp decided to release a statement saying what was done … without actually saying what procedure was done. “Repair the issue at hand” is intentionally vague, and “reinforce the healthy ligament” is at least a little confusing based on previously-reported information.
There was a partial tear in the ulnar collateral ligament. Usually, the surgery to repair the issue – if you have surgery – is what we colloquially call Tommy John surgery, which USUALLY replaces the UCL with a fresh one from elsewhere in the body or a donor. The statement here seems to suggest there was only some kind of repair … but also the UCL was healthy? And the addition of other tissue seems to suggest the newer internal bracing procedure. But again, none of these things are stated explicitly, so you have to do some first-level extrapolating just to piece it together.
None of that really MATTERS, mind you, because the full scope of the procedure is CERTAINLY going to be VERY well-understood by teams pursuing Ohtani in free agency. I just don’t get why this is what you would want, as Ohtani’s agent, to first communicate with the world. “They did some stuff in there, and it’s all good.”
What really matters here is whether the timelines are ultimately going to be accurate. If it’s true that Ohtani can return to DH duties for Opening Day 2024, and Ohtani projects to return to pitching on Opening Day 2025, that’s going to clarify his market considerably. It’s still not good that he suffered this injury and had to have surgery – and I still think the added risk is going to ding his market because of the potential loss of unicorn status – but there’s nothing the market hates more than uncertainty. Now there is at least the certainty that the PLAN is for Ohtani to hit, only, in 2024 as he rehabs, and then to hit and pitch in 2025 and beyond, when he will be 30-31 years old.
Here’s the full statement from Ohtani’s agent:
