NEWSLETTER
I would say something like 92% of my focus right now is on the playoffs. Specifically, the Cubs, and even more specifically, making them. Another 5% is allotted to the minor leagues – like the Tennessee Smokies’ championship run – and Cubs prospect matters.
That leaves just 3% in this moment to think about the offseason ahead, and most of that is about Marcus Stroman’s opt-out or Cody Bellinger’s price tag or Shohei Ohtani’s surgery.
These are made up numbers, of course, but the point is I have very little brain space available at this precise moment to think about the offseason. I’ll be whole hog on it soon enough, but right now, the Cubs are in playoff position with six game left. That’s where my head is.
That said, this is the kind of thing that can sneak through and catch my eye on a Monday night, especially when the Cubs have an off-day:
The San Diego Padres have been an utter disaster. No, they aren’t a plainly bad team, and, yes, they’ve almost certainly been extremely unlucky. But given the investments in this roster – tons of short-term cash, long-term cash, and prospect costs – a season that ends without even a playoff berth is a gargantuan failure. Moreover, this recent run of balling out in such an extreme way has produced something like two of four winning seasons, and two playoff appearances (an NLDS loss and an NLCS loss).
So of COURSE there have to be changes. Again. Not like A.J. Preller was going to sit still in any case. Well, if Preller is still running the show.
The tenor of Acee’s piece is that everything is on the table for change. Maybe it’s major front office changes and/or coaching changes. Maybe it’s a dramatic roster overhaul. Maybe it’s dramatic cost cutting. As in, the Padres might want to shed upwards of $50 million in payroll(!).
That last one, of course, is what interests me most, because there is only so much the Padres can realistically move, and it’s impossible not to think about where the Cubs might line up to make a certain major trade with the Padres.
Yes, I’m dreaming about Juan Soto. No, I’m not worried about where he’d play. He’s Juan Soto. If he’s made available a year ahead of his coming post-2024 free agency, the Cubs MUST be involved in those conversations. He is a bat the Cubs need for 2024, which has been made all the more clear by this 2023 season. We know the Cubs can be very good in 2024, but we also know they are going to need more offense.
And from there, if you want to take a major swing at extending Soto – who isn’t even 25 until October – you do it. Because if he’s traded, whatever team lands him is VERY much going to do it with the intention of locking him down, even at a price tag that would assuredly exceed $400 million. Would the Cubs actually go there? Well, I suppose I’ll note only that (1) the Cubs reportedly have the money to be involved in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, so they are willing to go to that level for at least some player(s); and (2) if the Cubs trade for Soto, I assure you they are thinking about an extension. You simply don’t make that move without some hope that it can become more than one year.
This year, though he gets little attention for it because of the Padres’ failings and his own unique style, Soto has been incredible once again: .273/.408/.514/154 wRC+. Those are almost exactly his career numbers, too, and it’s about how he’s going to project to perform for at least the next half-decade. Waaaaaaant.
The price tag in trade on Soto would be substantial, though you do have to remember that you’re acquiring just one year, and he’s going to make over $30 million in that year. Recent trades involving Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor could be instructive: significant price tags, yes, but not necessarily anything that destroys your farm system. And we know the Cubs have substantial quality depth in the farm system at the moment.
Read Acee’s piece for more on how the Padres may shake things up this offseason, and join me in dreaming on Soto. It’s not the only, or even necessarily the most likely, thing the Padres do, but it is absolutely the most sensible.
