The Long Tail of Player Development, Ohtani, 2003, AFL, and Other Cubs Bullets

I’m sure the season can pick up from here, but that premier of ‘Loki’ was wildly underwhelming. Because of the long tail on these projects – which got longer because of the strikes – I worry that we’re in for another couple years of underwhelming stuff, even after the last few years were already pretty disappointing overall, and even if they started getting the ideas/development turned around as of today.

  • It reminds me a bit of player development in that way. Making all the right decisions and putting in great work at this moment doesn’t really show up on the big league field for several years down the road. We hope (and suspect) that the Cubs made significant improvements on the scouting and player development side a few years ago, and it SEEMS like we’re seeing the bleeding edge of that work poking through now. The real fruits need to arrive over the next five to ten years, and you hope a lot of the same people/processes are still in place *IF* it’s working.
  • That long tail, though, can make it really hard because, by the time someone like Justin Steele breaks out in the big leagues, many of the people and processes that were in place when he was first drafted and developed (2014-18-ish) are long gone. That’s not to say the 2019+ changes were a mistake – clearly they weren’t! – it’s only to say that, ideally, you’d have a kind of consistency that lasted for a very, very long time, since it takes so long to really know what’s working and what isn’t. It just has to be consistently, you know, good.
  • One more way to think about it, just for fun: if Cubs pitching prospect Jackson Ferris breaks out along the same timeline as fellow lefty high school draft pick Justin Steele did, then Ferris, the Cubs’ second round pick in 2022, will start to look really good in the big leagues in 2030 before competing for the Cy Young in 2031. And if some youngster the Cubs just signed in International Free Agency takes the Adbert Alzolay track, then he will be the Cubs’ closer in 2035. So, yes, these things can play out over a VERY long period of time.
  • Two Cubs prospects got into the Mesa Solar Sox game last night. Outfielder Christian Franklin had a couple hits including a double, and reliever Chris Kachmar pitched two innings allowing just a solo home run.
  • Jon Heyman talks about the Red Sox as a possible Shohei Ohtani suitor, and his line about the Cubs is pretty much going to be the consensus line around baseball: “The Cubs are a team that can afford him. But the question is: Will they spend that big?” There were reports earlier this year that the Cubs were going to be right there with the money, and it was just a question of where Ohtani wanted to play. But because that was pre-injury/surgery, I suppose we don’t know for sure whether their calculus has changed, given the potential (financial) risks to his value as a true two-way superstar unicorn. I’d like to believe the Cubs will still be involved because IT’S OHTANI, but I kinda want to see it reported, credibly, that their thinking has not been impacted.
  • The Cubs won three playoff series in 2016. People forget that.
  • Missed this yesterday, but it’s a very happy 2003 memory:
  • A bonus deal from our partners at 4for4 and Vivid Picks:
  • The Bears looked competent last night, which was wild:
  • Maybe the team was winning one for Dick Butkus, whose passing was reported and confirmed just before the game. He was a lot of fun, in addition to being a tremendous player.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and @Brett_A_Taylor.

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