With Marcus Stroman out the door (and not likely to be re-engaged), the Chicago Cubs clearly need an addition to the rotation, ideally in the form of a guy who can pitch in the front half, and double-ideally in the form of a guy who misses bats.
I’ve made no secret of my belief that Tyler Glasnow is among the best fits this offseason to take that spot on the Cubs. He misses bats, he has elite stuff, he also sports a high groundball rate (extra good on this team!), he is available in trade, and he doesn’t necessarily lock you into a long-term deal. Glasnow, 30, is under contract for 2024 only, and obviously there are substantial health risks there. The Cubs, who do have a lot of pitching depth, might be in a better position than most teams to “risk” fronting their rotation with a guy like Glasnow, who might give you 180 innings of ace-level performance, or might give you 50 innings and a lot of IL time.
Moreover, the Cubs may have arms they want to incorporate internally into the 2025+ rotation (or, if they signed a certain guy who can’t pitch in 2024 but then can pitch thereafter … ). Maybe Glasnow is a guy you’d only want for one year right now if you’re the Cubs.
And then there’s the acquisition cost. Because Glasnow is set to make $25 million in 2024, and is currently on a team that almost certainly doesn’t want to carry that expense, the cost to acquire him in trade should not be outrageous. For a team like the Cubs, with a very deep farm system, they may be best suited to find the right realistic return for the Tampa Bay Rays.
It all just makes sense to me that the Cubs would target a Glasnow trade, even as they also at least explore the free agent market.
But it’s on that last point – the acquisition cost – that the Rays seem to be planting seeds in the market to suggest they tottttttally don’t have to trade him, and if they do entertain something soooooo crazy, the price tag is going to be huge.
In writing about Tyler Glasnow as a trade candidate – mentioned BEHIND Corbin Burnes(!) in likelihood of a trade – Ken Rosenthal mentions the things I imagine the Rays might try to tell would-be trade partners (and/or they’re telling them already, and Rosenthal has caught wind):
“The expected interest in Glasnow, however, could motivate the Rays to act. Glasnow, 30, has only one year of club control remaining, but a team that acquires him this offseason would be eligible to make him a qualifying offer and obtain a draft pick if he departs as a free agent. Players traded during the season are not eligible for QOs.
The Rays, too, would reserve the right to draft-pick compensation if they keep Glasnow, so they likely would not accept an inferior offer just to clear his salary ….
A potential free agent of Glasnow’s quality normally brings back quality prospects at the deadline, and that’s without the possibility of draft-pick compensation. The Rays, then, likely will drive a hard bargain, particularly because Glasnow’s best days might be ahead of him. His elbow ligament first began failing in 2019. He avoided the injury list in the shortened 2020 season, but will start next season almost three years removed from his surgery in ‘21.”
That might as well be the pitch from the Rays: Glasnow is very good, is now very healthy, is going to be the best version of himself in 2024, and we don’t have to trade him now because we could get a haul at the deadline or at least a draft pick after the season.
Of course, there’s a good deal of playing with the probabilities in there. Setting aside the one that is always true for every player (Glasnow is merely very likely to be good in 2024, not guaranteed), Glasnow’s health is still an open question, given how little he’s been able to pitch in his big league career. Unfortunately, the best predictor of future pitching injury is past pitching injury. Relatedly, then, the probability of getting a haul in trade at the deadline (or a future draft pick) is heavily dependent on his health and first half performance (not to mention the challenge of trading the guy if the Rays are in contention at that point).
In other words, I don’t really see this discussion holding much sway. I don’t think the Rays threatening to keep Glasnow is what will drive his market in trade, and I don’t think it’s much of a boost to any acquisition price.
Don’t get me wrong, though. I do think the acquisition cost on Glasnow would be meaningful. You aren’t going to get him solely for salary relief, because there ARE a number of teams that would want him on a one-year, $25 million deal. Imagine he were a free agent right now, right? That deal would NEVER be available to you. So getting Glasnow on that deal has value, and the market will have competition.
I just know it won’t be the same as if you were trying to acquire a 25-year-old Glasnow with five years of team control remaining, or a Glasnow who was on his fifth straight 200-inning season of dominance, and the Rays shouldn’t try to spin it that way.