Even as I read that headline, I realize that it kinda depends on your definition of the word “imminent.” For me, I think of that – in a baseball transaction context – as something that’s truly just about to go down. Within the hour. Or a few hours.
Basically, it’s how it started to FEEL like things were trending yesterday in the starter trade market. Sometimes it’s hard to articulate – because it’s based on a collection of dozens of signals, some of them not reportable, synthesized through your own internal barometer – but I definitely do get a sense sometimes that a given move is imminent. Yesterday afternoon, it was the starter trade market, and maybe even Tyler Glasnow, specifically, and maybe even a deal to the Cubs, specifically. We had heard before there was interest there, and “active” trade talks.
Obviously no deal happened, and at least as interestingly, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was on the radio late in the day with Waddle & Silvy, where he said that although the Cubs were involved in that trade market, he didn’t think anything was as close as 24 hours. A lot teams are interested in these guys – Glasnow, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, and Corbin Burnes – and it might go into next week at the Winter Meetings before things really start moving.
After rightly downplaying the idea that the Cubs would go after Burnes or Cease (because of the intradivision or intracity “tax” you have to pay on a deal like that), Rogers did say there is something there on the other rumors. Particularly with Glasnow.
“Glasnow and Bieber are not in the division or in the city, so I do think there’s some real smoke there. I just don’t think it’s imminent. I think the Cubs and Rays have a similar front office. There’s a good vibe between the front offices. They were close to a deal for Willson Contreras (in 2022), so that almost happened. I like the idea of Tyler Glasnow to the Cubs for a decent package …. (But) you don’t have to give the house back. You don’t have to give three top prospects or anything crazy for one year of a guy at $25 million. So I think they match up well. The Cubs farm system is well-liked throughout the league. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if that gets done. I just don’t think it’s imminent, because there’s a lot of teams involved.”
Rogers went on to discuss the hypothetical 2024 Cubs rotation as having a guy like Glasnow in it, because he does think, in the end, the Cubs will trade for one of the available starters (so that’d be Glasnow or Bieber or a surprise). I would add that, if the Cubs don’t trade for one of those guys, they are going to add from free agency. There is zero chance that they do not add a starter – especially given the possibility that they want to add TWO starting pitchers this offseason.
But it seems clear to me – call it that internal barometer again – that the Cubs’ preference would be to add a guy like Glasnow in trade: a one-year guy with the potential to be an ace at the front of the rotation, whose acquisition cost is reduced by the salary and the health risk, and for whom the Cubs could at least cover with depth if there was an injury. It’s the right risk for this Cubs team, and I hope they get it done, even if it’s not imminent.
Speaking of which, a working theory: the Cubs would be a touch more aggressive to lock down a Glasnow trade if and when they knew they were getting Shohei Ohtani. Given that Ohtani can’t pitch in 2024 – but his presence would nevertheless make you really want to push in 2024 – having a one-year guy like Glasnow in the rotation is all the more compelling. To be clear, I don’t think these moves are wholly married. I think the Cubs want Glasnow regardless, and I’m FAR from counting any Ohtani chickens. I’m just saying they pair up well, and if the Cubs could coordinate the timing in such a way as to not let the Rays squeeze them too badly, they’re going to try to do it.
Last thing. Bruce Levine yesterday also mentioned the Cubs’ interest in Tyler Glasnow, together with trade talks. We knew it, but always good to have more confirmation: