NEWSLETTER
I gotta tell you, this one is catching me by surprise. While we’ve long known the Cubs have been interested in signing 25-year-old Japanese Ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the momentum sure seemed to swing away from them lately (especially now that both New York teams are trying to assert some financial and competitive dominance).
But Jeff Passan is as trustworthy as baseball insiders come. So if he says the Cubs are in, they’re in. And he actually said something much sexier than that:
It’s difficult to remember a player with a market as robust as Yamamoto’s. The 25-year-old right-hander will decide among a who’s who of teams interested in him: The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox and Cubs are among the favorites, with the Giants, Blue Jays and Phillies also expected to be in the mix.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Okay, the negative caveats first: Even if they’re separated into tiers (with the Cubs in the better spot), Passan mentioned eight(!) teams there. That’s still a very large group of hopefuls. And I don’t think I need to explain that it’s basically a list of the richest teams in baseball. A bidding war with that particular group (at this moment in time) is just not likely to wind up with Jed Hoyer on top.
Indeed, just because the Cubs are maybe willing to go bonkers on a deal for Shohei Ohtani, doesn’t mean they will for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Ohtani is a very different animal with baked-in short and long-term financial advantages.
Tough Competition
Secondly, those pesky New York teams. They’re in, they’re hungry, and they’ve been so tightly connected to Yamamoto lately, especially the Yankees, who apparently held back jersey #18 number for Yamamoto. And then there’s the Dodgers. Just yesterday, we saw a report out of New York that feared the Dodgers entrance into the Yamamoto sweepstakes if they whiff on Ohtani.
And the worst part about the Dodgers being involved is that they, like the Cubs/Hoyer, also like to do high-AAV, short-term deals (which should be particularly attractive to a young free agent like Yamamoto, who could get big-paid twice in his career if he times it right). That could eliminate a potential differentiator for the Cubs, if they were to go that route.
Can’t Ignore Reality
But still … there they are. The Cubs, clearly listed among the five favorites to sign Yamamoto.
I have to imagine their involvement would have to be predicated on missing out on Shohei Ohtani, not only because committing upwards of $800M to two players in one offseason seems unlikely, but because Yamamoto theoretically provides you with the “ace” level pitching performance that you’d otherwise be seeking/paying for on half of Ohtani’s deal.
But does going after Yoshinobu Yamamoto preclude the Cubs from also going after, say, Tyler Glasnow? And then how and where do the Cubs add a bat? I just really think the rising expected cost of Yamamoto changes what you can realistically do in one offseason, even if the Cubs have a ton of money coming off the books NEXT winter, as well.
Money and Timing
The last bit of Passan reporting on Yoshinobu Yamamoto had to do with how much he’ll get and when he’ll sign.
The floor remains firmly in place at $200M according to “multiple executives,” and that’s excluding the posting fee. But “Others said the cost of his contract could be in excess of $250 million — which would mean another $39.38 million….it’s more than conceivable that he receives the second-largest contract handed to a pitcher, behind Gerrit Cole’s $324 million deal with the Yankees.”
Yeah, that would mean Yamamoto’s total outlay might actually approach $300M when all is said and done. Color me very surprised. That’s like $60-$75M more than I was expecting at the outset of the offseason. I guess that’s what happens with an unusually young free agent.
As for when, it’s pretty straight-forward: Mid-December, according to multiple executives. Though I think that can probably be more accurately thought of as a week or two after Ohtani, whenever that is. Of course, Yamamoto has a strict clock and must be signed by January 4.
Whew. Okay, lots more to get to today, but for now, we smile: The Chicago Cubs are among the favorites to sign 25-year-old ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. I love it.
