NEWSLETTER
I don’t think you can actually take any bad news away from a top-100 prospects list that has five Chicago Cubs prospects in the top-50 (top-43, to be precise). But against a backdrop where we’ve seen as many as seven or even nine Cubs prospects on other lists, I suppose five a little disappointing. That’s how many Baseball America had, too, for what that’s worth, but they were in the top-50 there, as well. So I guess it’s all mostly good?
Anyway, I’ve buried the original point, which is that Kiley McDaniel’s preseason 2024 top-100 prospect list is out at ESPN today:
18. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF
30. Cade Horton, RHP
37. Matt Shaw, INF
41. Jordan Wicks, LHP
43. Owen Caissie, OF
As you can see there, McDaniel is right around industry consensus on PCA, Horton, Shaw, and Caissie, give or take a handful of spots.
Wicks, of course, is the standout. McDaniel was the high man on Wicks last year, too, and clearly nothing that happened in 2023 deterred his thinking. Here’s some of McDaniel on Wicks now:
“Wicks went 21st overall in 2021 out of Kansas State and was seen as safe (plus-plus changeup, plus command) but not that exciting (88-92 mph, fringy breaking stuff). His stuff ticked up in 2022 and he maintained it in 2023, averaging 92.6 mph with his heater. Wick’s breaking stuff also ticked up to play a bit above average and his changeup and command are both still strong.
His big league debut was solid and he now looks like a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter, the high end of what you could’ve expected on draft day.”
Wicks as a “solid No. 3” would be an incredible outcome from here, and I do think it’s possible within the next couple years. He flashed it last season in small doses, and there can be continued development going forward. Indeed, for as much as you look forward to innings Wicks contributes at the big league level this year, you hope even more that there is even more development. This ranking definitely contemplates it.
Of course, given that these are the five names on the list, you are immediately noticing the guys who don’t make the cut: Michael Busch (who was on every other list, and the lowest was number 71), Kevin Alcántara (who missed only on BA), James Triantos (who missed only on BA), and Moises Ballesteros (who appeared only on BP’s list). I am not going to freak on any of those, but I will say my review of Busch’s situation tells me he’s still got the upside of a clear top-100 type, and I am frustrated by evaluations that seemingly tanked Kevin Alcántara on the basis of a bad first month at High-A (his first ever in cold weather, and when he is a plus defensive center fielder who was young for the level, AND when he took right back off at the plate from there).
In total volume of prospects on ESPN’s list, the Cubs trail the Orioles (7), Mets (6), Padres (6), Reds (6), Yankees (6), and Tigers (6). That is a clear outlier among the other lists, which isn’t to say McDaniel is more down on the system overall, but it’s interesting. Maybe he likes the Cubs’ top-tier guys as much as anyone, but doesn’t see as much upside in the next tier. It’ll be up to the Cubs and that group of prospects to take big steps forward this year.
(Feature photo by Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK.)
