NEWSLETTER
You can’t know what’s going to happen on the injury front. Trying to predict the unpredictability of player health has been the longest-running vexatious part of a modern front office’s job, and I recognize that kind of thing before getting too hindsight-y. Especially when the injury that spurs a post like this comes on a flukey play.
But I think we all knew, even long before a flukey injury scare last week on a comebacker, and then last night’s flukey hamstring injury, that one of the 2024 Chicago Cubs’ most significant hinge points rested on the health and success of staff ace Justin Steele. That’d be true for most teams with respect to their number one, and the Cubs do have a lot of quality starting pitching depth. But here’s what I said last week, and it feels all the more (maybe TOO) on the nose this morning:
But, unfortunately, it sounds like they’re going to have to replace him nonetheless for at least some meaningful period of time. If you missed Craig Counsell’s comments after the game, where he revealed it’s a left hamstring strain, there will be an MRI, and an Injured List stint is expected:
“It looks like we’re gonna miss him for a little bit here.” That’s the quote that tells you a whole lot.
Steele tried to be positive after the game, but I think his affect that there – combined with the updating leg status as the Cubs learned more, from tightness to strain – is also telling:
So, I think we should all be bracing ourselves for a meaningful absence here. Any kind of hamstring strain, even a mild one, can cost a guy a month. And the time just ticks up from there if the strain more than mild.
Which brings me back to the hindsight thing. As we were learning about the potential seriousness of Steele’s injury, this news was coming out:
And this performance was going in the books:
It was already disappointing that the Cubs didn’t make a real run at Jordan Montgomery before the Diamondbacks got him on a steal, but after the Justin Steele injury, it’s all the more frustrating. The immediacy of the regret, too, is particularly stinging.
As for Shane Bieber, it’s a little harder to criticize the organization for not getting a deal done. We know there were talks and ongoing rumors, but we don’t know if the sides ever actually got close to a trade, or exactly what the Guardians were seeking. It’s possible, with more information, we’d say, ah, even in spite of the risks presented by some hypothetical future Justin Steele injury, it was reasonable to pass.
As for Montgomery, though, I mean, it’s not like Michael and I didn’t say it before this particular injury. The Diamondbacks got Montgomery on a bargain deal, and the arguments in favor of the Cubs making a push there – on such a low-risk deal! – were simply not that hard to conjure. So is it really an unfair bit of hindsight to say, ah, see, this is what can happen? This is why you try to secure impact redundancies when they are available on low-risk deals?
Now, then, a few other stray things. For one, I should note that we don’t know what Montgomery will actually provide for the Diamondbacks this year. Ditto Bieber for the Guardians. Hindsight can wind up going both ways.
For another thing, I’m sure some of the stinging today is also tied up with Jameson Taillon’s absence, which makes the rotation feel even less deep (but, I mean, it’s not like that was a new issue – we’ve known for a while that he was going to miss several weeks). Hopefully Taillon returns strong and on schedule, and the Cubs aren’t filling in two spots for too long.
So much for the best laid plans of giving starting pitchers an extra day of rest as often as possible. That’s definitely going to be more challenging now.
Extreme optimist mode: hey, at least this will shave some innings off of Steele’s early-season total, and thus he could be all the more fresh down the stretch!
Extreme optimist mode, part two: hey, maybe this opens up an opportunity for a young arm to make more starts than he otherwise would, and we get another positive emergence that’ll pay dividends in the long run.
Roster-wise, I would tentatively expect that we see an extra reliever come up tomorrow to take Steele’s roster spot, and then the fill-in starting pitcher would come up (or be transitioned out of the bullpen, if Drew Smyly) when that next Steele spot is required (which currently slates to be Wednesday). The obvious guesses at the fill-in starter if Smyly stays in the bullpen would be Hayden Wesneski and Ben Brown. A guy like Thomas Pannone would be another option if the Cubs really don’t want to bring those guys up yet, especially if the Cubs are projecting only three or so fill-in starts before Taillon returns. Best guess is Wesneski or Brown, though.
Here’s hoping Javier Assad still has his magic from last year, because he may well be sticking in the rotation for a good long while. Similarly, here’s hoping Jordan Wicks really is ready to be a stable, big league starter at the back of the rotation, bare minimum.
