Thanks to Christopher Morel (198 wRC+), Ian Happ (172 wRC+), Dansby Swanson (145 wRC+), and all that LOUD contact from Seiya Suzuki, among others, a couple of weaker offensive results are going undiscussed to start the year. I guess that’s the beauty of a Cubs offense that’s generally clicking overall (116 wRC+, 8th in MLB).
Specifically, Yan Gomes (-98 wRC+), Miguel Amaya (52 wRC+), and Nico Hoerner (61 wRC+) have had slow starts to the year. These are tiny *TINY* samples, so there’s really no reason for concern or even further dissection, so I won’t be doing that today.
But there is one other guy who falls into this group, that, for other reasons, I do want to talk about: Michael Busch.
The Cubs’ new first baseman has had just 16 plate appearances this season, and so far, the results haven’t quite been there for him: .154/.313/.154 (48 wRC+). But anyone watching the game knows he’s looked a lot better than that. Generally speaking, Busch has a very comfortable presence at the plate and a clear understanding of the strike zone (just a 19.4 out-of-zone swing%). Throw in a 55.6 hard% and a 93.3 MPH average exit velocity on the nine balls he’s put in play so far, and yeah … this is just a guy who’s just gotten unlucky in a tiny sample. It happens.
In fact, his .409 xwOBA (expected wOBA) is even higher than Christopher Morel’s (.406) … and Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Yordan Alvarez. So, yeah, the eye test and the numbers all suggest Michael Busch is doing just fine making high-quality contact. None of that is what I wanted to discuss.
Instead, the point of today’s post is just to identify a little early trend that might be worth monitoring: How opposing pitchers are attacking him.
Batter Four-Seam Fastball %
- MLB average: 30.0% (94.5 MPH)
- Cubs average: 39.9% (94.7 MPH)
- Michael Busch: 53.8% (95.1 MPH)
So far, Michael Busch is getting a four-seam fastball 53.8% of the time this season (6th most four-seamers of any player in MLB). And the average velocity of that four-seamer is over 95 MPH. If you include all fastball types (not just four-seamers), you’ll find that Busch is getting a fastball 61.5% of the time (22nd in MLB), also well above the league average (47.2%).
Some of this is just noise in a small sample and some of this is simply a product of who he (and the Cubs) have faced so far. But still, that’s a pretty noticeable gap above the rest of the league and his own teammates. And it has me wondering if this is part of the book on him.
Or more specifically, it has me asking three questions: (1) Do teams think he can’t handle premium velocity? (2) Is this just the product of testing a yet-unproven rookie? (3) Will this continue going forward?
It’s too early to really answer any of those questions, but the idea here is just to note it for continued observation. In other words, this can be our thing to monitor for Michael Busch, as we get to know him. I was not aware of any scouting-suggested fastball deficiencies, so I’m just curious if big league teams think it’s a thing.
For what it’s worth, Busch’s expected stats on those fastballs are all just as strong as everything else we’ve seen from him so far (outside of actual results): .336 expected batting average, .670 expected slugging, 57.1 hard%, .451 xwOBA. So as far as I’m concerned, I hope teams keeping throwing him fastballs, because by all accounts, he can handle heat just fine.