If you’re a 26-year-old Gold Glove middle infielder who just finished his third above-average season offensively, while stealing 43 bags, scoring nearly 100 runs, and completing your second-consecutive 4.0+ WAR season, there’s not a lot of incentive to change. And that’s the truth. Nico Hoerner really could have kept doing this season what he’s done the past three years, and it would’ve been just fine for him, for the Cubs, for us, etc.
But the other truth is that his historically high-contact, low-slug, low(ish)-walk offensive profile does leave a lot of room for growth. And while there’s always risk in trying to be something you’re not, I think it’s fair to say Nico Hoerner’s talent, athleticism, eye, and general potential/skill/work ethic does give him a leg up in being successful, especially after he’s already established a baseline of production.
And although it’s early, I think we’re seeing the start of a different version of Nico Hoerner offensively.
So far this season, Nico Hoerner has walked eight times through just 10 games, including three multi-walk games. His eight walks are tied for 5th most in MLB (same as Ian Happ), while his 18.6% walk rate ranks among the top-10.
In 2022, his first good overall season, Hoerner didn’t record his eighth walk until June 26 (58 games into the season) and he had just three multi-walk games overall. Last season, he didn’t record his eighth walk until May 3 (30 games) and he had just five multi-walk games all season. So right away that looks pretty significant. But walks, alone, don’t tell the full story.
An increase in walks is a fine result overall, but it’s missing a lot of context. And one big question is has he made any meaningful changes so far to his approach to earn those extra walks. And the answer seems to be yes.
While Hoerner is seeing slightly fewer pitches in the zone this season (40.6%) than his career (41.5%), he’s also swinging at balls out of the zone WAY less often overall: 20% o-swing rate in 2024 (t-12th best in MLB), 34.6% for his career. So right there, at a minimum, you can say Hoerner’s eye and patience has improved this year, and he’s spitting on more balls than ever.
But even THAT is only half the story. Because I don’t actually think the goal of Hoerner’s new approach (if there actually is one, this is just a theory) is to walk more often. That’s just a happy byproduct that’s helping him float an excellent .372 OBP despite a .156 batting average.
Instead, I think he’s looking for more power.
And here’s the data to support that early hypothesis: So far this season, Hoerner is also swinging at fewer pitches in the zone than usual. He’s also making contact on fewer pitches in the zone. He’s also hitting the ball in the air much more often this season (38.5%) than he has for his career (32%) and has a much higher hard-hit% (38.5% this season vs 32.9% for his career).
And if you’re watching him at the plate this season, that really shouldn’t surprise you. The only other thing (besides all the walks) that’s been pretty easy to spot during Hoerner’s plate appearances this year is these BIG looping swings that even shuffle his feet after the bat goes through the zone. In fact, that’s what put me onto this idea before the walks even started coming. It just feels like Hoerner has been more selective overall, but is absolutely unleashing when he sees a pitch he likes.
And while that hasn’t quite worked out for him so far (.156 AVG, .188 SLG, .031 ISO is all … yikes), you could choose to see it as a process that could balance out over time and result in a more well-rounded offensive contributor overall.
And just for the record, his .246 xBA and .302 xSLG, while not great, are both significantly higher than the actual results he’s gotten so far in a small sample. If you added those extra times on base and extra bases per hit to his already excellent OBP, you’d probably feel very differently about how this process is going so far. And that’s just the luck of how his balls in play have shaken out.
Now if there’s one thing that goes against this theory – or at least is a glaring area for improvement if more power really is the goal – it’s that Hoerner’s pull rate is actually down quite a bit this season. If he was trying to put more balls over the fence, you’d probably expect to see that up significantly (though maybe that would have or will happen naturally as some of those big whiffs turn into contact).
On the flip side, if Hoerner is just angling for more gap power, and maybe that should be the goal over homers for someone without as much natural pop to his game, it’s at least worth noting that he’s actually going the other way quite a bit more (keeping his % of balls up the middle almost exactly equal).
Now, I’m not here to endorse this potential change. That decision is up to the Cubs hitting coaches and Nico Hoerner. And it’s always possible/likely that the small sample size of 10 games skews these numbers. But this is certainly something to keep an eye on. With his contact and speed, Hoerner was already a really valuable offensive player that could turn singles into doubles with legs (either by stretching a hit or just stealing a base). But if he is trying to be something more and becomes successful, that could be a really nice boost to a Cubs offense that is already rocking and rolling through their first 10 games.
Hopefully, the results start catching up to his approach sooner than later, so that he can find the right balance between contact and SLG. But again, if he is able to pull this off, a 5.0 WAR+ season (or better put, what that represents to his overall value) is well within reach.