NEWSLETTER
As of this morning, the Cubs bullpen has thrown 57.0 innings (5th most in MLB) through 13 regular season games. The only bullpens with more innings on the year? The Dodgers (72.1 IP, 16 games), Padres (65.1 IP, 16 games), Astros (61.0 IP, 15 games), and Marlins (60.1 IP, 14 games) … all of whom have played more games than the Cubs.
At least last night, Drew Smyly (2.0 IP, 1H, 1BB, 2K) and Keegan Thompson (2.0 IP, 0H, 0ER, 0BB, 3K) were able to cruise through 4.0 innings of work, preserving the higher-leverage arms. And while Smyly also probably deserves some love, we’re going to focus on Keegan Thompson, who was making his 2024 debut (in what is likely his last chance to stick with the Cubs).
If you’re looking for why this is maybe his last chance with the Cubs, I dug in deep on the background, context, and recent performance yesterday when Keegan Thompson was first called up. But now that we have some actual game data to dissect, let’s turn our attention that way.
Keegan Thompson entered the game in the bottom of the 7th inning, facing the Mariners 3-4-5 hitters and retiring them in order: a hard-hit grounder (.150 xBA), a harmless, but hard-hit pop-fly (.070 xBA), and a four-pitch strikeout of Jorge Polanco.
In his second inning of work, Thompson once again went three-up, three-down, striking out Mitch Garver (swinging) and Cal Raleigh (looking). After that, Dylan Moore hit a rocket-line drive to center field, but it went straight into Bellinger’s glove and that was that.
While I was watching live, I made four key observations, two good and two bad. Let’s start with the good.
- Velocity – Keegan Thompson’s velocity was a bit of a concern coming into the season/game, but it wasn’t a problem last night. His fastball averaged 93.7 MPH last night (according to PitchInfo), and he eclipsed 94 MPH a couple times that I saw (maxing out at 94.2 MPH). When he was at his best in 2022, his average fastball velocity was 93.8 MPH (94.0 MPH last season), so he’s pretty darn close. It’s possible that he was a little amped up in his first start back, but it didn’t look max effort or anything like that. And he definitely didn’t lose control.
- Control – If velocity was one of the big concerns of Keegan Thompson coming into the season, control was the other. Last season, Thompson’s walk rate jumped to a completely untenable 15.2% (up from 8.9% the year prior). But Thompson did not walk a single batter last night, and actually never threw more than 2-balls per plate appearance.
At an absolute minimum, if Thompson can (1) throw as hard as he used to, (2) find the strike zone more often, and (3) pitch multiple innings at a time, he’ll have a home in the Cubs bullpen. But let’s talk about some of the “bad” stuff.
Although, before I even go there, it wasn’t really “bad-bad.” I mean, the guy went 6-up, 6-down on 24 pitches. I was just paying especially close attention and these were the only red(ish) flags.
- Losing some pitches – Although Keegan Thompson’s fastball command was mostly good last night, he did lose at least four fastballs way up and away. In isolation, it’s no big deal, but because I was watching for command so closely, they really stood out. And unlike his breaking pitches out of the zone, these served no purpose and we’re completely ignored by the batters. Basically, I’m saying he had 4-5 non-competitive pitches.
- No chases – For as much as his fastball was working last night (43% whiff rate), his curveball was COMPLETELY ignored. The Mariners saw it all the way out of his hand. He’ll have to get that pitch working if he wants to keep putting batters away. Although, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mariners gameplan against Thompson was overly patient, expecting more wildness than we saw. The more he stays in the zone, the more protective batters will have to be, and the more that curveball will start to play.
But of all the stuff listed above, there’s one thing that stood out – for the better – above the rest. And that’s Keegan Thompson’s new mustache. 10/10 No notes.
