None of this is a surprise if you have been doing the math, which is why Chicago Cubs President Jed Hoyer feels comfortable discussing it before tonight’s game.
The short version? The Cubs are not going to make any rental acquisition trades to bolster the 2024 team, unless they rip off a huge winning streak right up to the deadline:
If the Cubs won the next seven games going into the Deadline, hey, they’d be two games over .500, and likely juuuust outside a playoff spot (or maybe in one). That’s a significant change in circumstances from the present moment and would justify a change in approach. But I don’t know that anyone thinks that is especially likely. Hoyer pretty clearly doesn’t.
The focus of deals at the deadline, Hoyer therefore indicated, would instead be moves that help the Cubs for 2025 and beyond. That doesn’t necessarily mean exclusively buying OR selling – because either type of trade could plausibly help the Cubs for 2025 and beyond, depending on the deal – but I do think he was more talking about traditional buying-type trades being conceivable if and only if they make sense for 2025+.
Personally, I would caution that those types of buying trades for teams not in contention are very rare, and are also often inadvisable (because you’re “paying” for the 2024 impact of that player, even though you may not be able to “use” the 2024 impact).
Note that traditional selling-type trades would obviously still be on the table by Hoyer’s comments, but that is not a surprise. What would be surprising is if the Cubs engaged in SIGNIFICANT sell-side trades of players under control for multiple years, like Justin Steele or Nico Hoerner. Because those players can help the Cubs in 2025 and beyond, you can understand Hoyer’s comments to mean that it would take a substantial and impactful return to justify moving those guys right now.
Shorter-term or players of less critical importance? Sure, sure. Those trades will be contemplated as they always are this time of year.