If the Chicago Cubs wind up selling this Trade Deadline, one name that will be discussed a great deal – among the punditry, if not necessarily among the teams – is outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger. Because he is not necessarily viewed as a long-term lock for the Cubs (his deal contemplated that he might leave after 2024), it’s understandable that outsiders would see him as something close to a “rental” trade candidate.
But, as we have discussed at length, that is almost certainly not reality, precisely because of his contract structure. The short version: because he’s guaranteed $50 million in 2025 and 2026 *if he wants it,* but can opt out after 2024 *if he wants,* an acquiring team would get very little upside and would be on the hook for all the downside. Not a recipe for a particularly meaningful return.
And that was all BEFORE an errant fastball broke Bellinger’s left middle finger, and shut him down earlier this month. It’s not at all clear that he’ll be able to play again before the deadline, making it all the less likely he could be traded.
That said, it sounds like the rumor mill is not ruling out the possibility of a Cody Bellinger trade entirely.
From Jesse Rogers (emphasis mine):
“The Chicago Cubs told teams a couple of weeks ago that they would probably be willing to trade some of their veterans, but then a sweep of the Orioles in Baltimore before the All-Star break put that on pause. But they’re back to subtraction mode after losing a home series to Arizona ….
On the position player front, Cody Bellinger’s finger injury and contract status make a deal for him complicated as well — but not impossible.”
I actually think that’s probably about as fair as you could be with the language on a Bellinger trade. It’s super unlikely for all the reasons discussed above, but I can’t quite call it “impossible,” given that it is “possible” that he comes back and looks good, it is “possible” that the Cubs eat some salary or take a modest return, and it is “possible” that some buyer out there is so desperate to get Bellinger that they talk themselves into not being worried about the player options for the next two seasons.
I would reiterate that the return in such a trade would be limited because of the contract, even if the buyer did see Bellinger as truly impactful for the rest of the season (which, given his success the last two years and quality defensive versatility, is also “possible”). So I’m not really going to be on an Obsessive Cody Bellinger Trade Watch or anything like that.
There’s a separate and worthy debate about whether the Cubs should trade Bellinger if all they can get is salary relief. Much of that, of course, comes down to your confidence in Pete Crow-Armstrong taking a step forward in 2025 (personally? I do have some confidence on that front), and I think there could be respectful opinions on multiple sides. Let’s see about his finger healing rapidly before we get too combative, though …