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Before last night’s win over the Brewers at Wrigley Field, Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer faced the media with much to say about the short and long-term future of his organization. But among the many headlines to emerge, nothing was more important than the apparent (and long-awaited) admission that this just isn’t the Cubs year: “…unless things change over the next week, we probably won’t do a lot of moves that only help us for this year. If moves help us in ’25 and beyond … that’s what our focus will be.”
That’s not exactly an admission that he’s going to be selling at the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline. And, indeed, as we’ve discussed a million times, this team isn’t exactly built to sell (re: there are not many expiring contracts and there is a desire/expectation to compete next season). But the winds have clearly shifted. And unless the Cubs win out, you can probably expect them to subtract from this roster by the time the bell rings on July 30.
So … who’s on the block? Who is generating interest? We finally have a solid report, and it includes at least one surprising name.
Which Cubs Players Are Being Targeted for Trades?
At ESPN, Jesse Rogers wrote up Jed Hoyer’s comments, adding some reporting of his own. And this quote, in particular, answers the question(s) above:
Hoyer still believes the team is well positioned for the future and is hopeful the trade deadline helps that cause. Scouts have been evaluating Cubs relievers including Mark Leiter Jr, Hector Neris and Tyson Miller, according to league sources. Starter Jameson Taillon and third baseman Christopher Morel have also garnered interest.
Okay, then. Leiter Jr., Neris, Miller, Taillon, and Morel. Now that we have something to work with, let’s actually discuss those five players.
The Relievers
In the broadest sense, the Cubs should absolutely be willing to trade any/all relievers. They’re the easiest pieces to move at the deadline and often the least consequential to the future success of the franchise (not only because relievers are generally less impactful, but also because of their volatility).
There’s also the fact that the Cubs do have a number of younger arms they’re hoping to audition for next season after the deadline. So if you can open up some space, that becomes even easier to accomplish.
Mark Leiter Jr. has been one of the steadier arms in the Cubs bullpen this season, with particular effectiveness against left-handed hitters. And although his 4.50 ERA doesn’t seem all that appealing, front offices are smarter than that and will be perfectly aware of his 2.65 xERA and 2.21 FIP.
Indeed, Leiter Jr. is currently sporting a career-best 34.5% strikeout rate while maintaining a solid 9.0% walk rate and .206 AVG against. He’s also limiting hard contact (86.4 MPH EV, 32.1 hard%, 7.4 barrel%) and has a 50.6% groundball rate. Simply put, he’s been good.
He’s also cheap ($1.5M this year) and under control via arbitration for two more seasons. He’s a solid trade chip.
Hector Neris we discussed at length yesterday when we first learned of the reported trade interest he’s been generating. So I’ll just point you to that conversation instead of rehashing it here. One thing to note: With another scoreless inning (and save) yesterday against the Brewers, Neris has now delivered nine consecutive scoreless outings with 12 Ks and a 50% groundball rate. He’s heating up. The possibility of his $9M option turning into a player options, however, is a limiting factor in his trade value.
Tyson Miller has proved to be a truly fantastic pickup for the Cubs. In his 23.2 innings since being DFA’d by the Mariners and acquired by Chicago, Miller has earned a 1.52 ERA thanks to a TINY 3.4% walk rate and .157 AVG. He’s not a closer or even a bonafide set-up man on a contender. But he’s absolutely an intriguing and hot relief arm for cost-conscious (in dollars and acquisition price) contenders. Miller is making the league-minimum and is not even arbitration eligible until 2027.
The Starter
Jameson Taillon is probably the biggest/most impactful trade chip the Cubs have to offer *among those that are realistically available.*
His remaining control (2.5 years) and financial cost ($18M due in each of 2025 and 2026) make a Taillon-trade a little trickier on both sides of the equation — as the Cubs could use him next year and any acquiring team would have to decide if they want to commit to that much future salary right now. But he’s pitching well and starters are highly coveted, especially guys who could conceivably be a part of a playoff rotation.
As a reminder, Jameson Taillon has been one of the better pitchers in baseball for over a year now. Dating back to last July 7, here’s how he ranks in some key stats:
- 183.2 IP (33rd)
- 3.23 ERA (8th)
- 4.00 K/BB (20th)
- .237 AVG (21st)
- 1.13 WHIP (17th)
- 89 MPH EV (21st)
- 8.5 barrel% (29th)
There is some competition on the starting pitcher market, but there’s no guarantee that Tarik Skubal will actually be dealt, that Garrett Crochet has enough innings left in him this season to remain a starter through October, or that the Rangers will deal Max Scherzer/Nathan Eovaldi. Other starters will be available, but Taillon is up there among the more impact options.
The Position Player
I was surprised to see Christopher Morel’s name pop up among the players who’ve “garnered interest,” for about a billion reasons. But there are two broad points that make a trade feel particularly unlikely, one from each side:
- Cubs perspective: Christopher Morel is young (just turned 25) and under cheap team control through 2028. And his remaining offensive upside VASTLY outpaces his current value thanks to an underachieving year of production. He also hasn’t taken all that well to third base (at least, not yet). So trading him right now would almost necessarily constitute trading him at his lowest perceived value in a couple of years.
- External perspective: Although Morel’s offensive upside remains tantalizing, is any team really all that eager to acquire him as an impact bat for THIS postseason run? I suppose if you had a desperate need for right-handed power at DH (or maybe second base) and a strong belief in Statcast metrics, you could convince yourself that a slight tweak here or there could immediately unlock all that potential, but it would be a risk. And because of his age, control, affordability, and upside, you’d have to pay a significant price to peel him away from the Cubs.
All that said, the Cubs had received a ton of trade interest in Morel over the offseason, and they have prospects coming up the pipeline that will soon need at-bats available at third base (Matt Shaw) and DH (Owen Caissie, Moises Ballesteros). So trading Morel, if they get the right value back, isn’t completely out of the question.
I still have little doubt, however, that if they did move him now, it wouldn’t be for appropriate value. And that we’d probably all be kicking ourselves for not giving him a longer opportunity to prove himself offensive.
Heck, let me put an even finer point on that: If the Cubs are (1) really going to punt on the rest of this season and (2) still intent on moving Morel to make space for their prospects, then these last two months present a perfect opportunity for Morel to build up some more value for an offseason trade. I just don’t see him bein dealt right now.