We have seen four teams identified/rumored/speculated as being interested in Jameson Taillon (Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Padres), and now you can add a fifth to that group: the Houston Astros.
A trio of Rosenthal, Mooney, and Rome report the scoop:
A very specific report there, with the focus dedicated to the surging Astros’ obvious starting pitching needs (everyone is hurt, everyone else is nearing career highs in innings), and how Jameson Taillon could fill that void. He is clearly one of the most attractive starting pitchers currently known to be available.
The big rub with the Astros, though, is that they are not overloaded right now with prospect capital. The article even notes that it is a “legitimate question” whether the Astros have the prospect pieces necessary to compete with other suitors for Taillon.
Jacob Melton, 23, is the only Astros prospect who shows up on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 (near the bottom), and he’s only been about league average at Double-A this season. He is 76 on on Baseball America’s new top-100, but isn’t on Keith Law’s updated top-60.
I tend to think almost any farm system could put together a deal for a Taillon-level return, but you’d have to find a trade partner that would want a lot of volume, and a lot of high-upside, very-young, very-risky prospects (a la the Yu Darvish trade). I am not sure that’s where the Cubs are right now, especially given their sincere desire to compete in 2025.
You could start trying to pick players off the Astros’ big league roster to fill the gap, but I’m really not sure there’s a great combination there among guys the Astros would actually be willing to trade, and guys the Cubs would be eager to roster.
There’s another factor, too. The Astros would reportedly like to unload Rafael Montero’s contract if they were going to take on a deal like Taillon’s, and Montero, 33, seems to have fallen off a cliff the last two years. He has one year remaining after this season on his three-year, $34.5 million contract.
Normally, you’d say, great! Swap Taillon and Montero, and the Astros would have to pay even more in the trade! But if the Astros aren’t loaded with prospect talent in such a way as to make Taillon easy to acquire, it only gets MORE difficult if you’re including Montero’s contract, too.
So, yeah. Very interesting to see another contender named affirmatively as a suitor for Taillon, but it’s pretty tough to put together an argument that they would make the most compelling offer. I don’t want to rule out the possibility that the market for Taillon will be softer than we think, and Cubs scouts might love some of the Astros’ lower-level prospects. All possible. Seems unlikely, though.
Also an obligatory reminder: because Taillon is under contract for 2025 and 2026 on a deal that DOES NOT seem unreasonable ($18 million per season), this is not a situation where the Cubs have to deal Taillon. If they see his value to the team in 2025+ exceeding the value of the trade offers, then just shut it down and keep him. No problem there.