There it is. The first reliever trade for the Cubs, and it’s the guy we’d tentatively expected would have the most trade value, and thus be the most likely of that particular group to be moved.
Mark Leiter Jr. heads to New York:
Trade analysis coming soon.
UPDATE:
For the Cubs, the return adds a couple interesting, if not necessarily spectacular pieces to the farm system.
Ben Cowles, 24, is a middle-infielder currently playing at Double-A for the Yankees, and hitting a robust .294/.376/.472/141 wRC+ with good peripherals. I say give him the bump to Triple-A asap …
The rub about the big numbers this year is that Cowles was a 2021 draft pick out of college (Maryland, like Matt Shaw!), and three years out from the draft and 24, raking at Double-A isn’t necessarily a sign of a strong big league future. It’s still possible of course – age/level isn’t everything – and I’ll need to dig in much more to understand more about him as a prospect. He did not make BA’s updated Yankees top-30 that was just released, though he did sneak onto the early-season top-30 at MLB Pipeline (29). Sounds like he might be a utility type if things go well?
Jack Neely, 24, is the better-regarded prospect on the lists (number 20 at BA and number 22 at Pipeline), though he’s a pure relief prospect. Still, he’s putting up good numbers this year in his debut at Triple-A (after dominating at Double-A earlier this year), so you can already confidently add him to that group of relief options the Cubs have there at the border. Dude is 6’8″, by the way, and the Cubs absolutely love them some Big Boy Relievers. A plus fastball that goes 95 mph+ and a plus slider? Love it.
All in all, and on first glance, I’d call that a “good” return for Leiter, if not necessarily an eye-popping one. I wasn’t sure the Cubs would GET an eye-popping return for Leiter, though, given what we all know about reliever risks, and his particular risk tied to the splitter. For him, I hope it continues to work the rest of the year and he dominates for the Yankees. But if it goes for a bit, he becomes much more hittable.
Probably a fair value in trade, and the Cubs will hope that Cowles becomes a future bench option, and Neely emerges as at least an up-down reliever as soon as next season.
The other impact of the trade – and hopefully others that follow – is that it opens up relief innings for other arms the Cubs want to look at the rest of the way (Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts, Caleb Kilian, etc.). Having some development and evaluation runway there can make a big difference ahead of the offseason. (Oh, plus you have Ben Brown, Keegan Thompson, and Jordan Wicks hopefully returning from injuries soon. You want big league innings for them, too.)
Lastly, I want to note that Leiter was controllable via arbitration for the next two years, so the Cubs may have “hurt” their 2025 team in this trade, something they’d explicitly not wanted to do. The explanation there, though, remains the volatility risk with relievers, the cost in arbitration (a non-zero consideration, since it is salary that can be deployed elsewhere), the injury risk, and the particular pitch risk. I am actually happy the Cubs pulled the trigger on a deal, even if – on first glance – I regard the trade return as merely acceptable.
The Cubs potentially could have asked for more on Leiter – I do think his talent and team control would’ve justified a more aggressive ask – but the obvious risk there is that you get no deal at all.
And for me, personally, given ALL the factors, no deal was a terrible idea.
UPDATE: It’s officially official: