Shota Imanaga’s Great Night, Strong Season, and the Limiting Factor of Home Runs

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Surprise, surprise. Shota Imanaga was excellent AGAIN last night, striking out 11 Oakland A’s at Wrigley Field en route to his 18th quality start of the season.

Imanaga’s final line — 6.0 IP, 5H, 2ER, 3BB, 11K — beautiful as always. Oh, and get this: by game score (59), that was only his 13th-best start of the season. That’s how good he’s been in 2024.

Indeed, he’s been pretty close to automatic this season. Yes, there were the three “blow-up” outings against the Brewers, Mets, and Guardians, but in each of his 25 other starts, the Cubs had — at the very least — a shot to win.

So after last night, Shota Imanaga’s full-season numbers look pretty darn good: 3.03 ERA, 25.4 K%, 4.2 BB%, 28 starts, 166.1 IP. And if he gets two more starts to end the year, he’ll have a good shot at ~180.0 IP and a sub-3.00 ERA. That’s pretty much the extreme-best version anyone could have realistically hoped for when the Cubs signed him last offseason.

He’s already exceeded his “mid-rotation” upside projection and has entered into the realm of “possible front-of-rotation” starter. How good could he be next year?

That’s kind of the context I wanted to keep in mind while discussing the one wart we’ve always known was going to be there: the homers.

Shota Imanga and the HRs

After allowing another home run last night, Shota Imanaga has now allowed 15 HRs in the second half of the season (2nd most in MLB) and 27 HRs all year (t-6th most). Most of the pitchers around him on those lists have ERAs roughly 1.5 runs (or more) higher. So what’s the difference? Well, Shota Imanaga manages to succeed despite the homers because most of his come with no (or few) men on base.

  • 4.4 BB% (12th best)
  • .199 AVG (10th best)
  • 0.91 WHIP (6th best)

And while that’s OBVIOUSLY not all luck — he’s a very good pitcher and his strikeout/walk marks are within his control — he is benefiting from an unusually low .213 BABIP in the second-half of the year, during a stretch when most of his homers came bunched up (1.95 HR/9, 2nd highest in MLB).

That’s really more to the point here, as the potential problem seems to be increasing right alongside his ERA:

Mid-analysis reminder: Shota Imanaga is still a very good pitcher even with this issue. Criticism is not the point. Instead, the point of this call-out is to address what is potentially limiting him from becoming/maintaining a position as a TOP of the rotation arm.

Why or how is this happening? Well, if I had one guess (based on the following graph), I’d say opposing batters have decided on a different approach against Imanaga — one that sells out for homers, knowing they otherwise have very little chance at success.

Just check out the increase in pull rate and hard contact as the year has gone on:

Shota Imanaga

We could probably take this a step further, noting that most of the slugging damage is coming on his four-seamer, which has been steadily losing velocity as the season has gone on. I think Imanaga’s aware of that fact, too, because the volume of four-seamers he’s been throwing has decreased right alongside the velocity:

Imanaga has a variety of effective pitches, but it was and is his uniquely-shaped four-seam fastball that has driven so much of his success in Japan and in MLB. And although premium velocity wasn’t the key there, it’s not like it doesn’t matter at all.

I suppose that’s all an associated concern for a 31-year-old pitcher: If Shota Imanaga’s top-of-the-rotation status is based on his ability to continue limiting homers … and his ability to continue limiting homers is based in part on the effectiveness of his unique fastball … and if his fastball is losing velocity as he approaches a career-high in innings pitched, well then that’s something to watch next year.

But wait, there’s one more chief concern: His home ballpark.

The Wrigley Field Factor

As you may have heard by now, Wrigley Field has played extremely pitcher-friendly this year, especially when it comes to home runs (a park factor of 86 this year, while league average is scaled to 100). Only four parks played more pitcher-friendly when it comes to homers.

Normally, that’d be a good thing, because you might think “Hey, his home park matches his skillset!” But that’s not how Wrigley Field works. Thanks to the wind, the degree of homer-friendliness at this park changes more dramatically than almost any park in baseball. For example, last season, Wrigley had a HR park factor of 105 (11th highest). And in 2021 it was 124 (fourth most homer-friendly!).

So let’s just say, if the wind had blown this year the way it had in 2021, Shota Imanaga would have given up a LOT more homers than he has, and he has given up a lot as is.

You can’t QUITE do this — and I’m fudging the math just to illustrate the point — but if Wrigley’s HR park factor next year was, say, 115, Imanaga might expect to see roughly a 30% spike in homers allowed at home, with no change at all in his own peformance. That would mean roughly four more homers allowed, and roughly six more earned runs, increasing his ERA from 3.03 to 3.35. See what I mean? That one ballpark change takes him from near-top-of-the-rotation to more “really good mid-rotation starter.”

So that’s basically the concern for next season. Or at least the two things to keep an eye on: Imanaga’s fastball velocity/effectiveness, and the Wrigley Field home run factor. He’ll be a valuable member of the rotation either way, but just HOW valuable can vary well, like the winds at Wrigley Field.

Brett Taylor contributed to this post.

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Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

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A Reminder of How Much Money the Cubs Have Coming Off the Books the Next Two Years

Whenever we contemplate a deal for free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman, we mention how close it would bring the Cubs payroll to the first tier of the MLB luxury tax in 2025 ($241M). In short, absent a salary-shedding trade, any...

Zastryzny Outrighted, Pressly Not Quite Recruiting Bregman, Kershaw, Injuries, and Other Cubs Bullets

Took The Littlest Girl to Special Olympics basketball last night. We had fun. She wasn’t judged. I wasn’t judged. She simply got to be herself, welcomed by a community designed to support and include our family. Our experiences with Special...

Chicago Cubs Announce 2025 Promotional Schedule (With a Very Enjoyable Video)

Today, the Chicago Cubs announced their 2025 promotional schedule, which you can find right here. For the announcement, the Cubs crafted a promotion Hall of Fame video, which actually did take me back to some of my favorites. Bonus appearance...

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FGCU vs Stetson Women’s College Basketball Odds and Prediction – February 15

The Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (22-3) will attempt to continue a 15-game win streak when they host the Stetson Hatters (14-11) on February 15, 2025 at Alico Arena.FGCU vs. Stetson NCAA Game InfoDate: Saturday, February 15, 2025Time: 4:00 PM ETWhere:...

Omaha vs Denver Women’s College Basketball Odds and Prediction – February 15

The Denver Pioneers (8-16) aim to break a nine-game road losing streak when they visit the Omaha Mavericks (10-15) on February 15, 2025.Omaha vs. Denver NCAA Game InfoDate: Saturday, February 15, 2025Time: 3:00 PM ETWhere: Omaha, NebraskaVenue: Baxter ArenaLast Game...

Marquette vs DePaul Women’s College Basketball Odds and Prediction – February 15

The Marquette Golden Eagles (16-8) host the DePaul Blue Demons (12-15) in Big East action at Al McGuire Center, beginning at 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, February 15, 2025.Marquette vs. DePaul NCAA Game InfoDate: Saturday, February 15, 2025Time: 3:00 PM...

Central Arkansas vs Austin Peay Women’s College Basketball Odds and Prediction – February 15

The Central Arkansas Sugar Bears (18-6) will attempt to continue a 10-game home winning streak when they square off against the Austin Peay Governors (10-14) on February 15, 2025 at Farris Center.Central Arkansas vs. Austin Peay NCAA Game InfoDate: Saturday,...

UNC Asheville vs Charleston Southern Women’s College Basketball Odds and Prediction – February 15

The UNC Asheville Bulldogs (2-22) will try to stop an 11-game losing streak when they host the Charleston Southern Buccaneers (11-14) on February 15, 2025 at Kimmel Arena.UNC Asheville vs. Charleston Southern NCAA Game InfoDate: Saturday, February 15, 2025Time: 2:00...

Air Force vs Colorado State Women’s College Basketball Odds and Prediction – February 15

The Colorado State Rams (18-7) aim to build on a three-game winning streak when they visit the Air Force Falcons (14-10) on February 15, 2025 at Clune Arena.Air Force vs. Colorado State NCAA Game InfoDate: Saturday, February 15, 2025Time: 3:00...

George Mason vs UMass Women’s College Basketball Odds and Prediction – February 16

The George Mason Patriots (22-3) hope to build on a 10-game win streak when they host the UMass Minutewomen (14-11) on February 16, 2025 at EagleBank Arena.George Mason vs. UMass NCAA Game InfoDate: Sunday, February 16, 2025Time: 3:00 PM ETWhere:...

Indiana vs Purdue Women’s College Basketball Odds and Prediction – February 15

The Purdue Boilermakers (9-15) will look to end a six-game road losing streak when they visit the Indiana Hoosiers (15-9) on February 15, 2025 at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.Indiana vs. Purdue NCAA Game InfoDate: Saturday, February 15, 2025Time: 12:00 PM...

Rhode Island vs La Salle Women’s College Basketball Odds and Prediction – February 15

The La Salle Explorers (8-19) will attempt to stop a four-game losing streak when they hit the road to play the Rhode Island Rams (13-13) on February 15, 2025 at Thomas M. Ryan Center.Rhode Island vs. La Salle NCAA Game...

American vs Loyola (MD) Women’s College Basketball Odds and Prediction – February 15

The American Eagles (1-22) aim to stop a three-game losing streak when they host the Loyola (MD) Greyhounds (8-15) on February 15, 2025 at Bender Arena.American vs. Loyola (MD) NCAA Game InfoDate: Saturday, February 15, 2025Time: 12:30 PM ETWhere: Washington...

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