NEWSLETTER
I have reached the age where, if you notice something weird or concerning on or in your body, you pretty much leap to get it checked out by a doctor. I would say here that I have some weird thing on my face, but I know the kinds of quips that would open me up to …
- Ian Happ’s was the biggest game last night, but we’ll have more on him separately. Here, instead, I wanted to note the three-hit night from Nico Hoerner, who has quietly, and finally, been back on a hot streak. Going back nearly a month, to August 24, Hoerner is hitting .358/.409/.444/145 wRC+ over 88 PAs. He’s recorded at least one hit in 17 of those 21 games, and you can see that he’s got his usual high-contact, line-drives-plus-dinks-and-dunks thing working. For as much as everyone might wish he had more power, there is at some point value in just being who you are. Hoerner’s 1.2% barrel rate is the lowest in baseball among anyone with at least 500 PAs. Trying to hit for more power at this point is probably not going to serve him all that well.
- That said, I think the guy next to him on the list is instructive: Steven Kwan. The famously contact-oriented Guardians outfielder makes almost no “hard” contact (tied for the lowest hard hit rate (with Luis Arraez, of course)), but Kwan has picked his spots enough to hit 13 homers, and keep that ISO just a bit above 100. That, combined with his outstanding 24.2% line drive rate and walk/strikeout rates near 10%, means he’s been a very productive hitter overall (.291/.364/.419/127 wRC+). It’s very difficult for a player to succeed in MLB without at least some power, but there are skill sets where you can make it work.
- Hoerner has pretty much all of those skills – his ISO is around 100, his walk/strikeout rates are near 10%, and his line drive rate is in the low-to-mid 20s. He won’t quite get to the Kwan level without more walks and fewer strikeouts, but that is the caliber and style hitter Hoerner can be. And if he’s that guy while playing top-tier defense at second base (or shortstop, depending on circumstances), that’s a highly valuable player, in the 4-5 win range.
- We don’t know exactly what is going to happen in the Cubs’ infield this offseason or next year, but it serves everyone for Hoerner to finish up the year with some success. If he stays a little hot, he can get that slash line to just about where he’s been the last couple years, and with his defense and base-running, he would also approach another 4-win season.
- Random aside on the “hard hit” Statcast list: the bottom is an absolute who’s who of guys who intentionally sacrifice power at times for base-hit-type contact. Arraez, Kwan, Schanuel, Hoerner, Paredes, Altuve, and Bellinger showing up in the bottom 15, among others. I think we already knew for a while now that just looking at hard contact, in isolation for a hitter, is not always going to be instructive about skill and repeatability. Kinda need buckets, which I understand would be challenging to segregate for different types of hitters. Some guys are trying to sell out for hard contact in all counts, some guys just do it when they’re ahead, some guys change it up depending on the pitcher, etc., etc.
- So THAT was the Daniel Palencia we’re always hoping we get to see. Absolutely dominated, needing only 16 pitches to get through two perfect innings (13 strikes). His fastball averaged 100 mph and he was elevating it so well, his slider averaged 92 mph, he got six whiffs, caught Rooker looking, and generally looked completely in control.
- Jordan Wicks, who was a little improved from last time out but still didn’t have the command he needs, talks about Kyle Hendricks as a mentor:
- Owen Caissie, still at Iowa, with a possibly-home-run-robbing catch:
- Caleb Kilian with five scoreless innings in that one, and Hayden Wesneski with two dominant innings in relief. Both are guys who are too good for Triple-A at this point, but who may have to scrape and claw for big league innings (not just these final ten days of the season, but into next year).
- Didn’t see this on Monday … absolutely absurd:
- Sorry, White Sox fans:
- Tab wrote a book! Details:
- Happy birthday, Ryno:
