This afternoon, the Chicago Cubs begin their final series of the year – a three-game homestand against the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field. There are exactly zero stakes. The Cubs have long since been eliminated from NL Central or even wild card contention, and that’s with THREE wild card teams making the tournament from each league.
So that all prompted me to go back and look at what I wrote before the season began, which was ultimately a mix of moderate (but evidently unearned) optimism, high expectations, and a heavy dose of concern about coming up short over the offseason. Unfortunately, it was a little more accurate than I hoped it would be.
There’s no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you.
Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and Hector Neris are legitimately solid pickups. And I like the addition of Michael Busch (and Yency Almonte), too. But signing just three big league free agents, one of whom was on the team last year and another who’s effectively replacing Marcus Stroman in a similar rotation, while trading for one admittedly exciting, but still unproven prospect and a dice-roll reliever comes up WELL short of what probably should have been….
And that’s especially true in an offseason with legitimate star power available….
It feels to me like Jed Hoyer and the Cubs front office is playing to the (weak) NL Central. If 85-ish wins is enough to get you into the tournament, then why would you spend $100M more to win 95 games? That’s just excess!
Indeed, the projections and playoff odds are not favoring the Cubs this year, and Jed Hoyer kinda has to wear that.
And guess what, the Cubs have a record of 81-78 with three games remaining. So, yeah, those projections look pretty damn good right about now. And pretty damning overall.
It’s true that the Cubs dealt with an unusually large volume of injuries this season, especially early on, much of which led directly to a LOT of blown saves and late-lost games. But that’s all table stakes in Major League Baseball, doubly so when the organizational philosophy of the bullpen revolves around not making major additions. Right or wrong, that’s the risk.
But more to the point, you can’t look at ONLY the bad luck that happened while ignoring all the things that went unexpectedly well.
For example, we all liked the Shota Imanaga signing, but did anyone think he’d look like a borderline ace? No way. How about Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki having career years? Or Pete Crow-Armstrong winding up as a ~3.0 WAR player after starting the season in Triple-A following an uninspired debut? Or Jameson Taillon bouncing back? Or Javier Assad having a great season? And so on.
You can’t just say it’s “Well if only X, Y, and Z didn’t go wrong, they would have been good” without mentioning the things that worked out in their favor.
So let’s not make the same mistake this coming offseason, yes? No more half-measures. Go get big players on big deals. You’ll never eliminate the risks, but you can hedge your bets. It’s time to start building teams that PROJECT to win 90+ games. Not teams that project to sneak into the tournament if everything goes right.