It has not been an overly good year for the Chicago Cubs, and I’ll thank you not to presume I mean anything to the contrary.
But, even as that’s true, there are still reasons for optimism heading into this offseason in the form of a robust farm system, an improved development track for players at the big league level, and an increasingly consistent draft/IFA/development process for young prospects. In terms of how the organization is set up on the amateur and young professional side, I don’t know that I’ve felt as positive as I do now in a long time. Still have to translate it to consistent big league wins, of course, but at least the dream thrives.
The same cannot be said for the St. Louis Cardinals, who’ll miss the playoffs for the second straight season. Not a big deal in the Cubs’ world, but the Cardinals had made the playoffs 16 of the 23 seasons prior to 2023. It’s been an unusual down period for the Cardinals, and much of it is because they haven’t quite had the top prospect breakthroughs they’ve expected or needed.
Once a farm system powerhouse, constantly churning out surprising successes and tip-top prospects, the Cardinals are more recently known for a string of relative busts among their biggest names outside of Masyn Winn. To that end, a robust evaluation of what has happened, and what needs to change in St. Louis. This is worth your time:
Among the most damning quotes from The Athletic piece:
“The Cardinals have always operated with a relatively small player development team. But in recent years, team insiders say, the Cardinals failed to keep up as rival teams increased the size of their staffs. Not including affiliate coaches, special advisors or medical coordinators, the Cardinals have five full-time minor-league instructors, which marks their leanest staffing level in the past decade.
That number becomes even more conspicuous when compared to other teams in the National League. The Phillies boast 14 full-time field staff members. The Mets employ 15 staffers, including coordinators for catching, base running, infield and outfield. The Brewers, winners of the National League Central three times in the past four seasons, retain 17 staffers.”
That is a STUNNING lack of player development personnel, and I had no idea it’d gotten so thin. The rationale, apparently, has been budgetary, with more dollars shifting to the big league payroll … in part, to make up for development failures … which leads to more development failures … which leads to more big league payroll spending, and so on and so forth.
You could see it from the outside this offseason when the Cardinals had to construct their starting rotation almost entirely out of free agency. That’s just not a great way to put together a winning team when you’ve got a budget.
While I don’t want to throw praise at the Cubs’ front office AT THE EXPENSE of suggesting more and better moves are needed with respect to big league payroll, they pretty clearly went the opposite way the last five years. Where there were marginal dollars available, they went into overall organizational health, rather than just the big league roster. You can and should balance that spending, don’t get me wrong. But at least the Cubs aren’t staring down the kind of mess the Cardinals are.
Looking ahead, it’s pretty hard to see how the Cardinals aren’t in for multiple years of struggle, even setting aside the revenue hit(s) they are taking from the Bally/Diamond mess and rare attendance declines. It’s certainly possible that a switch flips for a number of young players and it all turns out fine – never doubt the voodoo – but, on paper, it’s dire.
As for what that’ll look like this offseason, it’s a little hard to say. Chaim Bloom has been brought in as a consultant to overhaul the player development infrastructure, and we also know that John Mozeliak is going to be retiring as president at some point in the near-ish future. Maybe Bloom gets a bump when the time comes, but even in that case, you can tentatively expect some significant front office/scouting/player development personnel changes for the Cardinals this offseason. Consider me a little itchy, given the divisional familiarity, the Cubs’ success in these areas, and the fact that a guy like Craig Breslow got poached last year. I don’t want to see the Cubs raided again, especially not by the Cardinals.