Cody Bellinger and Jed Hoyer on the Opt-Out Decision

Cody Bellinger Cubs trade rumors
Cody Bellinger Cubs trade rumors

One of the more consequential moments in the coming offseason for the Chicago Cubs is more or less going to be entirely out of their control. Shortly after the end of the World Series, Cody Bellinger can walk back into free agency (with a $2.5 million buyout), or he can stick around with the Cubs for another year at $27.5 million, with another decision to make (a $2.5 million buyout or a $25 million salary) the following offseason.

Because Bellinger is sufficiently good that you’re going to want him starting every day if he’s on your team, and because $27.5 million in 2025 payroll is a big chunk, Bellinger’s decision is necessarily going to dramatically impact the Cubs’ other moves this offseason.

As the season wound down, Bellinger wasn’t tipping his hand on which way he was leaning, if he was yet leaning at all.

โ€œI honestly havenโ€™t (made a decision),โ€ Bellinger told the Chicago Tribune last week. โ€œYou think about it, but at the end of the day, I havenโ€™t really even sat down with my wife and talked about it. And during the season, you just focus on playing, at least for me. I wake up and Iโ€™m going to go out and play, and thatโ€™s what I focus on. โ€ฆ I honestly have no idea ….

โ€œFor me, if I feel like I have a decision, Iโ€™ll probably wait on it, see if I still feel it, just really feel it out and trust my gut, trust people around me. Itโ€™s a privilege, so Iโ€™m going to do it with joy and see what happens.โ€

Pundits and fans all have their own perspective on Bellinger’s performance and the market, and it certainly does seem to pretty much everyone that it’s a close call.

Cubs President Jed Hoyer, however, didn’t really seem to share that perspective at yesterday’s season-ending press conference.

“When we signed the deal in late February, we knew if he had a good year, we knew heโ€™d have a lot of options,โ€ Hoyer said. โ€œAnd he had a good year, so I think heโ€™ll have options. Obviously he didn’t have quite the year (like) he had last year – like, last year he was an MVP candidate. I think when you look at the totality of the year he had, you know, I think he had roughly an .800 OPS on the road, and I think his home OPS was 200 points lower than last year. It was kind of how Wrigley played. So I expect him to have a lot of options ….

โ€œObviously, (the decision) will impact team building. Figuring out what positions weโ€™re filling. He is versatile, but itโ€™ll have an impact. But I expect heโ€™ll have a bunch of options given how he played this year.โ€

To me, it sounded like Hoyer was anticipating an opt out by Bellinger, if not outwardly offering a justification for Bellinger to do so (mentioning the home-road splits this year, mentioning how extremely good he was last year, etc.). I don’t think he is wrong in anything he said, but I expected a little more down-the-middle comments about how Cody has earned the right to decide, we’d love to have him back, but if he can do better that’s ok, etc., etc.

For me, I’ve said it before, and I’ll reiterate now:

“So, on the ultimate question of the opt-out, I would just note that Cody Bellinger has, overall, been pretty good offensively this year as a 29-year-old quality defensive outfielder, who can also play quality defense at first base, and who runs the bases well. Heck, there have been only seven center fielders this season whoโ€™ve posted a better wRC+ than Bellinger. Itโ€™s easy to lose sight of how good heโ€™s still been, relatively speaking.

A guy with that profile, at that age, and without a Qualifying Offer attached, *USUALLY* can count on getting more than two years and $50 million in free agency. Because of the injury issues and the two massively down years, as well as some regression from 2023 to 2024, I have to leave it at โ€œusually.โ€ Itโ€™s possible the remaining two years on his deal with the Cubs (plus an opt out) is better than he and Boras expect to find on the market.”

I think the Cubs would probably prefer to use those funds elsewhere, and thus would be OK with Bellinger opting out. I think Bellinger can get more than $50 million guaranteed, but I also think it’s possible he’s happy enough in Chicago that he wants to give it one more year – at a very healthy salary – to have a better walk year. And I think the Cubs could make that work, too, though it would create extra challenges in adding a big power bat externally.

In other words, I still think this could go either way. If I had to guess, I’d lean toward opting out, because I think he can top that guarantee (and Hoyer’s seeming leaning has me feeling like he has a sense of the market). Neither outcome would shock me, however.

Let me add one more thing: in a vacuum, I think I’d like Cody Bellinger’s contract if the Cubs were adding it fresh to a position of need. Two years and $50 million, front-loaded with an opt-out in the middle? For a 29-year-old with Bellinger’s skill set and no Qualifying Offer attached? That just seems like a really good value. Now, for these specific Cubs, it might not be the right roster fit or use of funds. But I’m just talking about the price-to-performance stuff, and it just seems like his deal is solid for the team. Doesn’t that mean I think he SHOULD opt-out? Why should he stay on a contract my brain is telling me is under market?

Not sure why that doesn’t quite get me over the hump, though. I still say it’s a close call. Gut speaking more loudly than brain, I guess.

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Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation. You can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation, on Bluesky at @Brett-Taylor, and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

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Obsessive Alex Bregman Watch: Still Holding Out for Maximum-Length Deal?

It has felt for a few days like maybe there was a thaw coming in the Alex Bregman/Scott Boras demands for a maximum-length deal in order to finally put pen to paper in free agency, but maybe that was just...

Another Ranking Places the Cubs’ Farm System Close to the Middle of the Pack Going Into 2025

The tale is not as old as time, but it's as old as this prospects rankings season goes: the Chicago Cubs' farm system stepped way back over the last year, for reasons good and bad, and now ranks as closer...

Bader and PCA, Pham and Pirates, No Festa Forever, Brasier and Berti, Rays Stadium, and Other Cubs Bullets

Kinda thought I would wake up to an Alex Bregman decision. It had that vibe last night, but nothing doing yet. Instead, we got Pete Alonso signing, which I suppose is not nothing. But I'm about ready for "the offseason"...

Pete Alonso Re-Signing with the Mets, Did NOT Get Paaaaid

The Pete Alonso free agency closes up back where it started, and where most thought it would end: he's going back to the New York Mets. And, boy, he did NOT get paaaaaid: In total, Pete Alonso's deal will guarantee...

The Cubs Have a New Full-time Backup to Jon Sciambi on Marquee (And I’m Very Here For It!)

Alternate title: The Cubs are promoting top broadcasting prospect Alex Cohen! Maybe it's not the breaking news those of us on social media are pining for tonight, but it makes me happy nonetheless! According to Jeff Agrest at The Chicago...

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Claim $1500 BetMGM Promo Code for KC vs PHI, NBA, and More This Weekend

The NFL finale is almost here! Kansas City and Philadelphia will go at it on Sunday for the right to be crowned this season's champion. Ahead of Sunday's showdown, BetMGM is offering an enticing $1,500 first-bet bonus to elevate your...

Oilers vs. Avalanche: How to Watch, Odds, Picks & Predictions

Friday's NHL games include the Edmonton Oilers (34-16-4) hosting the Colorado Avalanche (32-22-2) at Rogers Place. The Avalanche are underdogs (+164 on the moneyline) against the Oilers (-198) ahead of the contest, which begins at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN+.You...

Where to Watch RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis: TV Channel, Start Time and Live Stream

LaLiga's 10th-place team, Real Betis, visits 13th-place RC Celta de Vigo on Saturday at 8:00 AM ET.Watch LaLiga matches on Fubo! Use our link to sign up now.Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis TV & Live Stream InfoWhen: Saturday, February...

Where to Watch SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: TV Channel, Start Time and Live Stream

Two clubs residing in opposite halves of the Bundesliga, ninth-place SC Freiburg and 16th-place 1. FC Heidenheim 1846, play at 9:30 AM ET on Saturday.Watch Bundesliga matches on Fubo! Use our link to sign up now.SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC...

Where to Watch TSG Hoffenheim vs. Union Berlin: TV Channel, Start Time and Live Stream

The Bundesliga's 15th-place team, TSG Hoffenheim, hosts 14th-place Union Berlin on Saturday at 9:30 AM ET.Watch Bundesliga matches on Fubo! Use our link to sign up now.TSG Hoffenheim vs. Union Berlin TV & Live Stream InfoWhen: Saturday, February 8, 2025...

Where to Watch Athletic Bilbao vs. Girona FC: TV Channel, Start Time and Live Stream

The fourth-place team in LaLiga, Athletic Bilbao, hosts seventh-place Girona FC on Saturday at 10:15 AM ET.Watch LaLiga matches on Fubo! Use our link to sign up now.Athletic Bilbao vs. Girona FC TV & Live Stream InfoWhen: Saturday, February 8,...

Where to Watch VfL Wolfsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: TV Channel, Start Time and Live Stream

Two of the Bundesliga's top 10 goal-scorers go head-to-head when Jonas Wind (eight goals) and VfL Wolfsburg host Patrik Schick (14) and Bayer Leverkusen on February 8, 2025.Watch Bundesliga matches on Fubo! Use our link to sign up now.VfL Wolfsburg...

Where to Watch Hellas Verona vs. Atalanta: TV Channel, Start Time and Live Stream

Atalanta and Mateo Retegui have a good-looking matchup against Hellas Verona on Saturday. Retegui is first in Serie A with 16 goals, while Hellas Verona ranks 20th in the league defensively, allowing 48 goals.Watch Serie A matches on Fubo! Use...

Where to Watch FSV Mainz vs. FC Augsburg: TV Channel, Start Time and Live Stream

Two clubs residing in opposite halves of the Bundesliga, sixth-place FSV Mainz and 12th-place FC Augsburg, meet at 9:30 AM ET on Saturday.Watch Bundesliga matches on Fubo! Use our link to sign up now.FSV Mainz vs. FC Augsburg TV &...

Where to Watch Borussia Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart: TV Channel, Start Time and Live Stream

Two of the Bundesliga's top 10 scorers go head-to-head when Sehrou Guirassy (nine goals) and Borussia Dortmund host Ermedin Demirovic (eight) and VfB Stuttgart on February 8, 2025.Watch Bundesliga matches on Fubo! Use our link to sign up now.Borussia Dortmund...

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