One of the more consequential moments in the coming offseason for the Chicago Cubs is more or less going to be entirely out of their control. Shortly after the end of the World Series, Cody Bellinger can walk back into free agency (with a $2.5 million buyout), or he can stick around with the Cubs for another year at $27.5 million, with another decision to make (a $2.5 million buyout or a $25 million salary) the following offseason.
Because Bellinger is sufficiently good that you’re going to want him starting every day if he’s on your team, and because $27.5 million in 2025 payroll is a big chunk, Bellinger’s decision is necessarily going to dramatically impact the Cubs’ other moves this offseason.
As the season wound down, Bellinger wasn’t tipping his hand on which way he was leaning, if he was yet leaning at all.
โI honestly havenโt (made a decision),โ Bellinger told the Chicago Tribune last week. โYou think about it, but at the end of the day, I havenโt really even sat down with my wife and talked about it. And during the season, you just focus on playing, at least for me. I wake up and Iโm going to go out and play, and thatโs what I focus on. โฆ I honestly have no idea ….
โFor me, if I feel like I have a decision, Iโll probably wait on it, see if I still feel it, just really feel it out and trust my gut, trust people around me. Itโs a privilege, so Iโm going to do it with joy and see what happens.โ
Pundits and fans all have their own perspective on Bellinger’s performance and the market, and it certainly does seem to pretty much everyone that it’s a close call.
Cubs President Jed Hoyer, however, didn’t really seem to share that perspective at yesterday’s season-ending press conference.
“When we signed the deal in late February, we knew if he had a good year, we knew heโd have a lot of options,โ Hoyer said. โAnd he had a good year, so I think heโll have options. Obviously he didn’t have quite the year (like) he had last year – like, last year he was an MVP candidate. I think when you look at the totality of the year he had, you know, I think he had roughly an .800 OPS on the road, and I think his home OPS was 200 points lower than last year. It was kind of how Wrigley played. So I expect him to have a lot of options ….
โObviously, (the decision) will impact team building. Figuring out what positions weโre filling. He is versatile, but itโll have an impact. But I expect heโll have a bunch of options given how he played this year.โ
To me, it sounded like Hoyer was anticipating an opt out by Bellinger, if not outwardly offering a justification for Bellinger to do so (mentioning the home-road splits this year, mentioning how extremely good he was last year, etc.). I don’t think he is wrong in anything he said, but I expected a little more down-the-middle comments about how Cody has earned the right to decide, we’d love to have him back, but if he can do better that’s ok, etc., etc.
For me, I’ve said it before, and I’ll reiterate now:
“So, on the ultimate question of the opt-out, I would just note that Cody Bellinger has, overall, been pretty good offensively this year as a 29-year-old quality defensive outfielder, who can also play quality defense at first base, and who runs the bases well. Heck, there have been only seven center fielders this season whoโve posted a better wRC+ than Bellinger. Itโs easy to lose sight of how good heโs still been, relatively speaking.
A guy with that profile, at that age, and without a Qualifying Offer attached, *USUALLY* can count on getting more than two years and $50 million in free agency. Because of the injury issues and the two massively down years, as well as some regression from 2023 to 2024, I have to leave it at โusually.โ Itโs possible the remaining two years on his deal with the Cubs (plus an opt out) is better than he and Boras expect to find on the market.”
I think the Cubs would probably prefer to use those funds elsewhere, and thus would be OK with Bellinger opting out. I think Bellinger can get more than $50 million guaranteed, but I also think it’s possible he’s happy enough in Chicago that he wants to give it one more year – at a very healthy salary – to have a better walk year. And I think the Cubs could make that work, too, though it would create extra challenges in adding a big power bat externally.
In other words, I still think this could go either way. If I had to guess, I’d lean toward opting out, because I think he can top that guarantee (and Hoyer’s seeming leaning has me feeling like he has a sense of the market). Neither outcome would shock me, however.
Let me add one more thing: in a vacuum, I think I’d like Cody Bellinger’s contract if the Cubs were adding it fresh to a position of need. Two years and $50 million, front-loaded with an opt-out in the middle? For a 29-year-old with Bellinger’s skill set and no Qualifying Offer attached? That just seems like a really good value. Now, for these specific Cubs, it might not be the right roster fit or use of funds. But I’m just talking about the price-to-performance stuff, and it just seems like his deal is solid for the team. Doesn’t that mean I think he SHOULD opt-out? Why should he stay on a contract my brain is telling me is under market?
Not sure why that doesn’t quite get me over the hump, though. I still say it’s a close call. Gut speaking more loudly than brain, I guess.