NEWSLETTER
Over at The Athletic, Jim Bowden has dropped the offseason’s first batch of financial projections for the MLB free agent class. Like any of these kinds of lists, you’ll find some that look right and will be, some that look wrong and will be, and some that wind up a surprise in all kinds of directions.
You can peruse the list for your own reactions, but I’ll comment on a few things that stood out to me (the rankings order and teams mentioned as fits don’t make a lot of sense to me, so I’m kinda just ignoring that part) …
- Bowden predicts that Cody Bellinger will opt out of his deal and be able to secure a four-year, $112 million contract. I’ve said from the jump that I think an opt out is certainly much more plausible than others have suggested, but even I wouldn’t go so far as to predict a $28 million AAV on a four-year deal. Yes, his age, defense, previous elite years, two bounce-back seasons, the lack of a Qualifying Offer, and the terrible center field market will all greatly aid him this offseason, and are the reasons I think an opt out is possible. I also think nine figures is possible. But I’d expect it to be more like five years and $100 million at the higher end.
- The bat-mostly guys in Anthony Santander (7/$150.5M) and Pete Alonso (7/$204M) both project for more than I think the Cubs should be involved with, particularly given the lack of defensive fit and ages (30+). You’d much rather keep Cody Bellinger at 2/$52.5M if you had the choice (which the Cubs technically do not, but I’ll still make the point for comparison). Those two will be attached to draft pick compensation, too, for what it’s worth. I do think the Cubs will check in on both of those guys, mind you, and I *VERY* much believe they need to add home runs (specifically home runs). But I suspect the Cubs would be aiming to be available as a fall-back team on a short-term deal, a la Bellinger last year, if it came to that.
- At seven years and $247 million, I just don’t believe the Cubs would be seriously in on Corbin Burnes. Max Fried at six years and $174 million? I think that’s more plausible, but I’d still have my doubts there. My best guess is that, if the Cubs do pursue a top-level arm, it’ll be Fried, and they’ll try to keep it to four or five years. But the market is the market.
- Nathan Eovaldi, a recent Cubs rumor name, is projected at two years and $42 million (plus a team option), and I think that’d be a no-brainer. Similarly, if Jack Flaherty signed for just three years and $68 million, I’d hope the Cubs were interested. Ditto Yusei Kikuchi at three years and $42 million (because I can’t help but wonder if the Astros really did help him unlock something – he was crazy good for them).
- Tanner Scott might be the top free agent reliever on the market, but at four years and $60 million, with some of his up and down peripherals, looks like a disaster waiting to happen. No offense. Jeff Hoffman at 3/$33M is way more compelling to me, or even Clay Holmes at 2/$18.5M (yes, yes, postseason … I say take advantage if the market is depressed based on a tiny sample at the end of the year, which hasn’t even been THAT bad).
