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Option decisions are rolling out across baseball this afternoon, and the big one for the Cubs has already been revealed: Cody Bellinger will return to the Cubs next season, opting into his $27.5M deal for 2025. But that’s not the only item on the option to-do list. Drew Smyly had a $10M mutual option (with a $2.5M buyout), which the Cubs have now reportedly declined.
Cubs Decline Drew Smyly’s Option
Smyly was a good enough reliever for the Cubs this past season — and intermittently a useful enough spot starter in the two years prior — but I don’t think this was a particularly difficult decision for the organization given his cost and the internal options the Cubs have available for middle relief. Plus, Smyly is entering his age-36 campaign, and the Cubs can very likely do more with the $7.5M they just saved on the market. Or, who knows, maybe they find a way to re-sign him for cheaper. He does seem to like the Cubs.
Speaking of the money, we’ll do a much deeper dive later, but with Bellinger opting in and Drew Smyly’s option declined, the Cubs luxury tax payroll at the moment is sitting around $197.6M according to roster resource. That, however, includes roughly $35M in projected arbitration salaries, of which there will certainly be cuts. With some quick math and conservative guessing, I could see the Cubs begin their offseason with a luxury tax payroll right around $190M. That would give roughly $51 million to spend under the luxury tax. Subtract the $8-$10M they often like to preserve for in-season pickups and bonuses/escalators and you’re looking at about $40M in AAV to spend before next season.
Had Bellinger opted out, that would have been a lot more, but it’s still a good amount of financial flexibility.