How much background do I have to do here on a Saturday morning? Juan Soto, 26, is among the most attractive free agents in MLB history. He’s young. He’s healthy. He’s coming off an absolutely incredible walk year (41 HRs, 180 wRC+, 8.1 WAR). And he’s represented by Scott Boras.
Oh, and after being traded twice, there will be no hometown discount to consider for any one team or city. Everyone will be interested and he’s open to anyone.
Juan Soto was asked if he expects the Mets to go after him in free agency:
"I don't know what's the teams that are going to come after me. Definitely, I'll be open to this and every single team. I don't have any doors closed. I"m gonna be available for all 30 teams pic.twitter.com/3VICeWeney— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) October 31, 2024
And that means he’s going to get PAID. How much? Well, it has always been safe to use Shohei Ohtani’s record-setting deal as a measuring stick. But the problem is that deal means different things to different people. Nominally, Shohei Ohtani got $700 million over ten years, which is a $70M AAV. But as we all know, that deal is outrageously deferred so as to pay Ohtani only $2M per year with the rest coming in equal annual payments from 2034 to 2043.
So in terms of actual, present-day value, Ohtani’s contract is actually worth more like $46M per year (or even a little less according to the players union), making that the real number to beat. But even that is not the full picture, because Soto is four years younger than Ohtani, so his deal will almost certainly be longer.
It’ll be a while before we find out exactly how much Juan Soto is going to get. HOWEVER, we finally have some reporting on what’s reportedly asking for. And … hoo boy. It is a LOT.
Juan Soto’s Asking Price
At the New York Post, Jon Heyman, who is often very aware of contract details and asking prices for agents of Scott Boras, has some specifics.
According to Heyman, within hours of the World Series ending, eight teams had checked in on Juan Soto. And by the next morning, three more had checked in. And among those eleven teams, word got around that the asking price was going to be $700M … except not deferred.
Strictly speaking, $700 million in non-deferred dollars BLOWS AWAY Ohtani’s deal, which has an estimated present-day TOTAL value of $437.8M. But there are some important caveats.
For one, Juan Soto is seeking a 14-year deal, taking him through his age-40 season. So on a measure of average annual value, that would be $50M per year (vs Ohtani’s ~$46M).
For another, although this is not a unanimous belief, I think it’s correct: Any deal that stretches a decade and a half is almost inherently “deferred.” It won’t be treated that way, because he’ll still be technically under contract, but it should be. And that, too, brings down the present cost and the “real” average annual value.
But even with all of that in mind, these are enormous asks, exceeding the initial expectations of an industry that started with a $500M guess before acquiescing to something in the $600M range.
Of course, just because you ask for something doesn’t mean you’ll get it.
Given the expected involvement of the Yankees, Dodgers, and Mets, I don’t think we should dismiss anything out of hand. But I also think there’s going to be some immediate give and take expected. For example, if I had to guess, Soto will have to bend on either the years or the average annual value.
You want 14 years? Okay, but then you can’t have your $50M average annual value. Maybe something like $45M (just shy of Ohtani for the record) for a total of $630M.
You want to beat Ohtani’s AAV to become the highest-paid player of all time? Okay, you can have your $50M AAV, but it’ll be over just 10 years.
You can move the scales up and down as you wish, but that’s the general idea.
Of course, there’s also the possibility of one or multiple opt-outs, which are even more valuable to a player as young as Juan Soto. But sometimes, that’s just not what a player is prioritizing (Ohtani doesn’t have any scheduled opt outs, neither does Bryce Harper or Aaron Judge).
Juan Soto’s Suitors
For what it’s worth, Heyman also reports that the Yankees are reluctant to go even 13 years (let alone 14), but they will be involved and pushing up the price, just like the Dodgers and Mets (who are increasingly looking like the frontrunner to me).
Heyman also reports that the Giants, Blue Jays, and Red Sox are expected to check in on Juan Soto, and even says “word shockingly is two small-market teams already have.”
As for the Cubs, Heyman was on 670 The Score yesterday saying that they’ll likely call, but that he doesn’t expect them to play at that financial level. Just further confirmation of what we all already know/expect.