Yesterday, we dug through two long lists of MLB Free Agent projections at The Athletic and FanGraphs, digging into 23 players overall while discussing the rest of the market (and the Cubs’ needs) more broadly. Since then, two more lists have been released at ESPN and MLB Trade Rumors, the latter of which gave us the juicy Cubs-Max Fried prediction from three of four writers. But he wasn’t the only player mocked to the Cubs.
Inside MLB Trade Rumors MLB Free Agent projections, the Cubs were softly connected to six other players and actually picked to land three more (in addition to Fried). So instead of just running down both lists like yesterday, I thought we could focus on these players in particular, and their contract projections from all four sources. Cool? Cool.
Soft Mentions
Although they weren’t picked to land any of these first six players, the Cubs were mentioned among the possible suitors for …
Corbin Burnes, SP
- ESPN: 7 years, $225M
- MLBTR: 7 years, $200M
- FanGraphs: 7 years, $196M
- The Athletics: 7 years, $245M
If Burnes winds up closer to the lower end of this list, MAYBE the Cubs might see some value, especially with the Craig Counsell connection. But if he winds up closer to the MLB Free Agent projections from The Athletic, there is no shot. And probably shouldn’t be.
Blake Snell, SP
- ESPN: 4 years, $124M
- MLBTR: 5 years, $160M
- FanGraphs: 3 years, $105M
- The Athletics: 4 years, $110M
Sort of a similar story here – if the extreme low end here (ESPECIALLY in years) proves realistic, I could actually see the Cubs getting involved. But I sincerely doubt they’d want to go to even four years for Snell.
Pete Alonso, 1B
- ESPN: 6 years, $159M
- MLBTR: 5 years, $125M
- FanGraphs: 7 years, $140M
- The Athletics: 6 years, $168M
The Cubs were connected to Pete Alonso via trade twice in the past, but that was generally before the arrival and emergence of Michael Busch. And with Cody Bellinger (a backup first baseman) back for next season, Alonso (at these levels) doesn’t make much sense. Nonetheless, the past connection and need for power will probably keep them in the same sentences until Alonso signs elsewhere.
Nathan Eovaldi, SP
- ESPN: 2 years, $45M
- MLBTR: 2 years, $44M
- FanGraphs: 3 years, $48M
- The Athletics: 2 years, $45M
Eovaldi is the other free-agent pitcher who has been directly connected to the Chicago Cubs so far this offseason, and it’s not difficult to see why. At that small of a commitment, you can do a lot worse than a guy with a 3.75 ERA over his last 654.2 IP (26th most in MLB since 2020).
Kyle Higashioka, C:
- ESPN: N/A
- MLBTR: 2 years, $15M
- FanGraphs: N/A
- The Athletics: N/A
These four publications don’t give us much to work on with respect to catcher Kyle Higashioka, but he does fit into the mold of the type of player the Cubs could be looking to add behind the plate. I do think a certain different catcher might be more likely, and he’s actually been connected to the Cubs (see below).
Justin Verlander:
- ESPN: 1 year, $12M
- MLBTR: 1 year, $12M
- FanGraphs: 1 year, $17M
- The Athletics: 1 year, $12M
Given their previous connection (Verlander wanted to Cubs to the Cubs once upon a time) and the Cubs preference for short term deals, I don’t think you could rule out a Justin Verlander signing out of hand. But he is heading into his age-42 season after an injury-filled 2024 campaign. Then again, the last time he was healthy (2023), he posted a 3.22 ERA over 27 starts. So who knows! Maybe he’s feeling good and is one of those rare guys that can just keep going.
Okay, now moving onto the players that were actually projected/predicted to wind up with the Chicago Cubs in 2025.
Sean Manaea, SP (L)
Only one of the four writers at MLB Trade Rumors picked the Cubs to land left-handed free-agent starter Sean Manaea this offseason, but he has been an oft-mentioned possibility. And he’s a pretty intriguing option. From July 1 on, Manaea earned a 3.16 ERA while holding opposing batters to just .182/.251/.327 overall. He also made 32 healthy starts. Entering his age-33 season, Manaea is not much of an upside play, but he would bring more stability to the middle of the Cubs rotation.
- ESPN: 4 years, $86M
- MLBTR: 3 years, $60M
- FanGraphs: 3 years, $57M
- The Athletics: 4 years, $76M
As far as these projections go, I think the Cubs would be very hesitant to go to four years, but would be comfortable at three. All that said, I’d prefer they’d spend that ~$20M on a more impactful pitcher.
Danny Jansen, C
Two of the four writers projected catcher Danny Jansen to the Cubs, and it’s not too difficult to see why. For one, Jansen, 29, is still on the younger side for a catcher. For another, he’s shown an ability to impact the game offensively in addition to being a quality backstop. Throw in the fact that we more or less KNOW the Cubs are looking to add big time share catcher to pair with Miguel Amaya behind the plate, and I don’t think this is all that outlandish.
Remember, though, Jansen’s offensive explosion last season ended pretty early on and he was well below average for most of the season. Still, he’s a 100 wRC+ career hitter, which is quite good for a catcher.
- ESPN: 2 years, $12M
- MLBTR: 2 years, $20M
- FanGraphs: 2 years, $16M
- The Athletics: 2 years, $14M
The overall commitment for Jansen is also notably low, though I do wonder if he’ll be seeking a pillow contact with a chance to hit free agency again next winter if he has a strong year (or even just a stronger finish). He left a lot of money on the table with his cold second half. But I’d be happy to roll the dice on him behind the plate … assuming a sexier option (trade for Logan O’Hoppe) is off the table.
A.J. Minter, RP (LHP)
The last time Jed Hoyer spoke to the media (covered by us earlier today), there was one area in which he was not particularly vague: The Cubs are serious about adding a quality left-handed reliever to the mix this winter.
โWe werenโt optimizing for individual matchups as much as we would have been, and you could feel it in the second half,โ Hoyer said. โWe oftentimes didnโt have the best matchup for a lefty, especially when Luke went out. So that is something that weโll be actively looking for this offseason.โ
But Minter could be that guy. Among all relievers with at least 220 IP from 2021-2024, A.J. Minter’s 3.05 ERA ranks 7th in MLB. And for his career, lefties have hit just .221/.286/.316 off him while striking out 31% of the time. And he’s no slouch against righties, either. If the Cubs were able to add Minter this offseason, he’d represent the sort of serious bullpen investment this team has mostly been lacking in recent years.
- ESPN: N/A
- MLBTR: 2 years, $16M
- FanGraphs: N/A
- The Athletics: N/A
Ultimately, I don’t know how much the needle would be moved by an offseason of Max Fried, A.J. Minter, and Danny Jansen (for example), but those are quality big-league free agents you’d like to have on your team. I still think – and will continue to say that – the Cubs need to figure out how to add a true impact bat above all else. But that may ultimately have to come via trade. In terms of free agency, these are solid players to target.