Today Baseball America released an early look at the Rule 5 Draft player pool, and, alas, one of the Chicago Cubs prospects who was probably right there on the border of the protect/don’t-protect decision is highlighted prominently.
Cubs outfield prospect Christian Franklin, who turns 25 tomorrow, is the second name mentioned in BA’s whole write-up:
“Among Rule 5-eligible hitters with upper-minors experience, Franklin might have the most complete package. He has a good balance of skills at the plate including contact, on-base ability and raw power. Franklin’s swing decisions grade out as plus-plus on multiple teams models, and his zone miss of 18% is in above-average range. While Franklin only hit six home runs this season, his power metrics aren’t bad. His 90th percentile exit velocity of 104 mph is above-average, as is his 40.8% hard-hit rate. Franklin is also a plus runner who swiped 34 bases on 41 attempts in 2024. Franklin played all three outfield positions this season and has the ability to play centerfield everyday. He is well-rounded and could fit as the fourth or fifth outfielder on a team looking for a versatile upside play.”
That’s Franklin, who was the Cubs’ 4th round pick in 2021, in a nutshell: he does a lot of things well, and just has that look of a possibly very good 4th outfielder. Defense? Plays it well all over the outfield. Speed? Yup, runs really well. Plate discipline? Exceptional. Power? He absolutely does have some available.
On the season, Franklin hit .268/.398/.366/135 wRC+, with a 16.6% BB, 20.8% K, .344 BABIP, .098 ISO, and a 60.3% groundball rate. As you can see, it’s those latter two numbers that are going to create some doubt about his future. Franklin has always had pretty meaningful power potential, but he’s not yet consistently been able to bring it into games. That, in turn, makes him very dependent on his BABIP and walk rate to be productive – both of which are numbers that usually take a substantial hit at the MLB level. He’ll need to hit for more power in the air to have offensive success at the higher levels, I think, but it’s important to note that he did hit for plenty of power in 2023, and, again, he has power potential, physically speaking (50 grade raw power).
If Christian Franklin had yet reached Triple-A and shown the exact same skills, though, I expect the Cubs would’ve wanted him on their 40-man roster as optionable depth. As it stands, he’s a bit on the older side for not yet having reached Triple-A, so the Cubs are rolling the dice that he won’t get jumped straight from Double-A to MLB by some other club.
Recall, earlier this month teams had to made decisions on whether to add certain prospects to their 40-man rosters in order to protect them from next month’s Rule 5 Draft. In essence, that draft is about allowing other organizations to scoop up guys who’ve been in an org for a relatively long time without ever reaching the 40-man rosters. It’s about spreading around player talent at the margins, and preventing hoarding that hurts players’ careers.
At the heart of these decisions is a balance: 40-man roster real estate is definitionally limited, so you have to weigh the value of keeping the player (and starting his options clock) against the likelihood that he would ACTUALLY be drafted. Not every good prospect is drafted, of course, because Rule 5 picks come to you with some pretty significant strings attached: (1) the player goes onto your 40-man roster immediately, (2) the player has to make your 26-man roster on Opening Day and stay on the 26-man roster all season (minus up to 90 days for injury) in order for you to keep him, and (2) it costs $100,000 to pick a player (of which you can get back half only if the original team wants to pay it to get the player back after you decide to let him go).
So, by leaving Christian Franklin exposed to the Rule 5 Draft, it’s not that the Cubs are saying they don’t see a future big leaguer or that they want to get rid of him. Instead, it seems to be more of a comment that they believe they COULD weather his loss reasonably well given their outfield depth, and that they believe he may not be ready to succeed in a bench role at the big league level without some time at Triple-A first.
If he goes unselected in the draft, Franklin is going to be one of the starting outfielders for the Cubs at Iowa, probably joining Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. With those two already on the 40-man, it’s likely that they would get the first shot at filling in at the big league level in 2025 if a need arose. Realistically, what you’d really want to see from Franklin is another step forward at Iowa, such that you see he’s clearly a 40-man type by the end of the year.
Of course, if he’s plucked in the Rule 5 Draft, you just have to wish him well in the big leagues right away. Hard to be too mad when guys get that opportunity.
There are some other interesting unprotected Cubs prospects (names here), though Franklin was always the biggest name who is thought to have a real chance of being picked. Very hard to predict which younger pitching prospects might get popped, though, because sometimes just one team sees a chance to stash a guy in their bullpen, even though everyone else sees it as a reach.
The Rule 5 Draft takes place near the end of the Winter Meetings, with this year’s being on December 11 at noon CT.