NEWSLETTER
The kids are all back to school today after a mini break for Thanksgiving. House feels extra quiet. That’s mostly a good thing from a productivity standpoint, but it’s always an adjustment …
- The starting pitching market is really cooking now, eh? Kikuchi, Snell, Montas, Boyd – that’s actually a fair bit of a movement within one market pre-Winter Meetings. I wonder if we’re about to see more this week, especially if teams are trying to gobble up the preferred non-Qualified starting pitchers first.
- Speaking of that market, I’m thinking about what the pricey Frankie Montas (Mets) and Matthew Boyd (Cubs) deals say about the price tags in that tier of starting pitching – guys with injury questions, who have in the past shown mid-rotation upside, but who very well may just be back-of-the-rotation inning-eating guys. Usually, you’re not paying $14+ million for those types, and you’re certainly not giving them multiple years. So the question is whether the market has shifted, and if so, is it because of the value of having those back-of-the-rotation innings *OR* is it more because of the potential upside? Are teams more willing now to pay extra for the chance that a guy like Boyd actually is a new man post-surgery, or the chance that a guy like Montas can find his youthful success again? I don’t have a firm answer to any of this, it’s just that those two deals back-to-back had me wondering what was up. Still pretty strongly prefer the Boyd deal, for what that’s worth.
- If the money is more about the stability of innings, by the way, then did a guy like Javier Assad just become super duper valuable? Not saying the Cubs should start shopping him – he’s as valuable to them as any other club – but it just made me wonder.
- As for the rest of the free agent market, this is how it tends to go, with one area moving in a probably-interconnected wave. We’ll see if the positional group gets moving this week, or whether the Juan Soto waterfall is holding that one up. The reliever group will probably feature multiple waves throughout the offseason, as it usually does. Tentatively do expect there to be a whole lot of signings in that group this and next week, though.
- Back to starting pitchers for a moment: no, I don’t think the Boyd signing has any relationship whatsoever in any direction to the Roki Sasaki pursuit. We would all love to twist ourselves up into a pretzel of hope – maybe they’re locking down a guy like Boyd now so that they can focus all their pitcher-related phasers on Roki Sasaki for the next month and a half! – but I just don’t see it.
Something to keep in mind: Matthew Boyd pitches using an arm. You know who else pitches using an arm? Roki Sasaki. The fact that they have that in common could be part of the sales pitch to Sasaki, and could explain the Boyd signing.
— Brett Taylor (@brett-taylor.bsky.social) December 2, 2024 at 9:29 AM
- The Cubs signed Boyd because they needed a starting pitcher, he was in the tier where they’re spending, and they probably like Boyd’s upside. They were always going to try for Roki Sasaki one way or another, like a couple dozen other teams, and the odds of actually landing him have always been lower than remote. Boyd has no bearing.
- With that Sasaki stuff in mind, I share the latest from Ben Badler, where he proposes the seven best bets on Sasaki based on conversations around the game and knowledge of the international market. The Cubs are not one of the seven listed teams, which is a bummer for a variety of reasons, but it really doesn’t matter because this whole thing is going to be a prelude to the Dodgers obviously getting him (with maybe a 5% chance of the Padres).
- But hey, if you want to be unreasonably optimistic (if the image cuts off, that’s Dan Plesac predicting Roki to the Cubs):
- It’s nice to dream. I’d like to believe the Cubs still have a chance – like, the tiny remote chance type thing – based on their success with Japanese players and dramatic improvements in pitcher development. But it’s pretty hard for me to feel any of that Plesac optimism when Badler, who is connected, is basically not hearing anything about the Cubs. I guess we’ll see if they even get more than a courtesy meeting once Sasaki is officially posted.
- Sounds like there is a big week on tap for the A’s stadium deal in Las Vegas, with an updated plan to be discussed by the Las Vegas Stadium Authority Board. There is no indication that the plan to break ground this spring (and to open for the 2028 season) is in jeopardy, though, unlike the whole Rays stadium mess. It’s still very unclear what is going to happen there, as they are also in the phase where they need local approvals for funding so that they can break ground asap and open for the 2028 season, but the hurricanes threw everything for a loop.
- This may have been the happiest I was this season. Not a ton of competition, but this had me out of my seat big-time:
- Don’t forget that the big sale at Obvious Shirts ends tonight at midnight. And make sure you’re checking out the Cyber Monday deals at Amazon. #ad
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- Connor Bedard is heating up again, thank you very much.
- Wondering whether Bulls fans appropriately appreciate Billy Donovan.
- Matt Eberflus spoke after he got the boot from the Bears.
- Last day to get this deposit match:
