NEWSLETTER
Early offseason rumors had the St. Louis Cardinals in a transitional state on the big league roster, focusing on budget-conscious maneuvering and organizational development, including handing the reins from John Mozeliak to Chaim Bloom after the 2025 season.
That had folks concluding that the Cardinals would be selling off as much as they could this offseason, engaging in some of the clear hallmarks of a rebuild. From my perspective, given their overall situation, that would be the right move.
… but they maybe aren’t actually doing it?
Some of what they’d probably like to do – e.g., trading Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras – is being thwarted by no-trade clauses and ugly contracts. But some of it seems to be of their own volition and I can’t wrap my head around it.
For example, the Cardinals’ most easily-tradable, highly-valuable piece is closer Ryan Helsley, who’ll be cheap in his final year of arbitration. He might walk after 2025 anyway, and a shut down closer has limited value to a team that may not win 80+ games. Go get a haul for him right now, right? Makes sense with the overall organizational vision, I’d think.
So naturally, the Cardinals are trying to act like they aren’t going to trade him.
‘[T]eams talking to the Cardinals are under the impression the team will hold Helsley, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak does not dispute that point.
“It’s something we will always remain open-minded to, but our plan is to have him be part of our organization,” Mozeliak told The Athletic on Thursday.’
That matches a sourced report from the Post-Dispatch last month, where it sounded like the Cardinals want to enter the season with Helsley still anchoring the bullpen.
There are only three possible explanations here:
1.) The Cardinals are absolute idiots (much we might wish that was the case, I don’t believe the evidence has shown this to be the case over the years);
2.) The Cardinals are no long looking at a rebuild at all and simply want to try to run it back and win more games in 2025; or
3.) The Cardinals are terrible at bluffing and of course they want to trade Helsley.
As a Cubs fan, I actually hope the explanation is number two: that the Cardinals have deluded themselves into believing their best course of action is no action at all. Just try to win again, and if you don’t, trade Helsley at the deadline. I really do hope that’s the route they choose, because I think it’s one that is fraught with unnecessary risk, and one that does not help them improve their potentially dire longer-term situation. The Cardinals trying to compete in 2025 at the expense of an improved 2027-2030 (or whatever)? I’ll gladly take that as a Cubs fan.
But I’ve gotta believe the real situation is closer to number three. The Cardinals probably haven’t loved the implied offers they’ve been receiving, they know they are competing with Devin Williams on the trade market, and they know most of the late-inning relievers in free agency are still out there. So if possible trade partners aren’t feeling rushed to make a great offer, the Cardinals will feign a desire to keep Helsley.
Maybe they don’t get great offers until January, or maybe they don’t get them at all. If they’re compelled to keep Helsley into the season, then I’ll just be rooting hard for them to stink right out of the gate, and for him to blow a ton of saves, completely tanking his value ahead of the Trade Deadline. That would all be quite a gift to the rest of the NL Central.
