NEWSLETTER
Back at the very outset of the offseason, Anthony Franco (MLBTR) picked the Chicago Cubs as the eventual landing spot for free-agent, left-handed reliever A.J. Minter. And today, that connection is renewed with a fresh Cubs rumor from Jon Morosi: “A.J. Minter is one of the most popular free agent LH relievers among teams at the @MLB Winter Meetings. The Braves would like to bring him back, and the Cubs and Rangers are among the clubs with interest.”
Based on everything we’ve learned SINCE November 5 (i.e. No, really, the Cubs are interested in improving their bullpen via free agency with more established arms than usual), I’d say this all tracks logically. But we didn’t need the last month of rumors to confirm that for us, specifically with respect to a quality left-handed reliever.
Jed Hoyer addressed that much himself at his end-of-season press conference, and I brought it up the last time we spoke about A.J. Minter:
The last time Jed Hoyer spoke to the media … there was one area in which he was not particularly vague: The Cubs are serious about adding a quality left-handed reliever to the mix this winter.
“We weren’t optimizing for individual matchups as much as we would have been, and you could feel it in the second half,” Hoyer said. “We oftentimes didn’t have the best matchup for a lefty, especially when Luke went out. So that is something that we’ll be actively looking for this offseason.”
But Minter could be that guy. Among all relievers with at least 220 IP from 2021-2024, A.J. Minter’s 3.05 ERA ranks 7th in MLB. And for his career, lefties have hit just .221/.286/.316 off him while striking out 31% of the time. And he’s no slouch against righties, either. If the Cubs were able to add Minter this offseason, he’d represent the sort of serious bullpen investment this team has mostly been lacking in recent years.
Mark Leiter Jr. is gone, and the Cubs are no doubt reluctant to rely solely on Luke Little and Rob Zastryzny as the primary left(ies) in the pen. So targeting someone like Minter could help them address both a late-inning option and a left-handed option in one swoop. It wouldn’t be particularly cheap relatively speaking (maybe 2 years, $18M?), but that’s just the going rate for late-inning (non-closing) relievers.
A.J. Minter – Stats, Injuries, More
Of course, Minter’s story isn’t necessarily ideal, either. Although he has been very solid in pretty much every season outside of a flukey 2019 campaign, he did hit a bit of a speed bump this past year. MLBTR does a nice job of recapping it. So let’s roll the tape:
Minter had a strong run as one of the better left-handed relievers in the game. From 2021 to 2023, he tossed 187 innings with a 3.13 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. He recorded 15 saves and 78 holds for Atlanta in that time. Among lefty relievers with at least 150 innings pitched in that frame, Minter’s ERA was in the top five, behind Josh Hader, Tim Mayza, Wandy Peralta and Andrew Chafin. His strikeout rate was also fifth, behind Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Taylor Rogers and Tanner Scott.
Unfortunately, he’s not going into free agency on a high note. He went on the IL multiple times in 2024 due to left hip inflammation and eventually underwent surgery in the middle of August, spending the final few weeks of the season on the 60-day IL.
If the Cubs are confident that Minter is going to be healthy by the time the season starts, he’s a perfectly attractive relief target for a team that could use one. Of course, there are a lot of options out there this winter, as we discussed earlier today when we learned that the Cubs had spoken to Nationals closer and free agent Kyle Finnegan.
So I guess you can now add A.J. Minter to a list of potential Cubs free agent relief targets that includes direct rumors (Finnegan, Kirby Yates, Andrew Chafin) plus some speculative connections (Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estevez). With the prior trade for Eli Morgan (and the continued buttressing of the rotation), I like the way it LOOKS like the Cubs’ pitching staff will shape up in 2025. Still gotta execute (on deals and in the season), but we’re on the right track.
One final stray thought? It seems as though A.J. Minter may be tight with current Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson from their shared time on the Braves:
Although Minter did just recently switch agents, from the group representing Dansby Swanson to someone else. I’m sure he’ll just go to whichever team offers the most money. But maybe his relationship with Swanson can be something of a tie-breaker.
