NEWSLETTER
Jesse Rogers’ latest post on X continues an emerging (and encouraging) trend in the world of offseason Cubs rumors: Jed Hoyer is committed to improving his team’s run prevention this winter, specifically with more help for the bullpen. Rogers even has a new name for us, someone he says has spoken to the Cubs, and it’s a solid one: Former Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan.
Cubs Have Spoken to Kyle Finnegan
Kyle Finnegan, 33, was heading into his final year of arbitration ($8.6M), when the Nationals non-tendered him in November, making him a free agent. But don’t let that lower your expectations too much. While there is some implicit negativity for any non-tendered player who was not immediately acquired by another team, some guys do sneak through while maintaining value and good times ahead.
In fact, it happened between these same two teams back in 2021 in the other direction, when the Cubs non-tendered Kyle Schwarber, who picked up with the Nationals and went on to hit 32 homers the next season … and then another 131 homers after that.
So anyway, yes, I’m happy to see the Cubs have at least spoken to free agent closer Kyle Finnegan.
Kyle Finnegan Stats
Kyle Finnegan, 33, has 88 career saves, the bulk of which came over the past two seasons, including 38 in 2024 — only Emmanuel Clase (47) and Ryan Helsley (49) had more.
So at the very least, Finnegan is an established, experienced closer. For as difficult as it is for those of us who are more analytically inclined, there does seem to be something about the ninth inning/a save opportunity that changes the calculus on evaluating a player. Or to put it more plainly, not every “good” reliever is suited for that role. For some guys, the ability to rise up in those moments — or more likely, to remain unshaken — is an actual skill. At least, that is my belief.
So to at least that one point, Finnegan has an important box checked. The Cubs could use a closer, and Finnegan is a closer. It’s just that his other stats are underwhelming, if not outright confusing.
Last season, for example, Finnegan struck out only 22.1% of the batters he faced, which is below the league average for a reliever, but especially a closer. Strikeouts are important in that role, and I don’t think I have to explain that one too deeply. Likewise, he isn’t a control artist (8.9 BB%), he doesn’t really manage contact (91.3 MPH EV, 48.1 barrel%, both of which are awful), and he isn’t a groundball machine (45.9%).
He did manage to stay off the barrel (7.0%), but even that was only barely better than the league average (7.3%). Frankly, it’s a little incredible he was able to save as many games as he did. And, indeed, his mediocre (for a closer) 3.68 ERA was FAR better than where all those underlying peripherals point: 4.31 xERA, 4.25 FIP.
And yet, he’s carried pretty consistent results (and velocity) throughout his five-year career.
- 2020: 24.2 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.55 xERA – 95.2 MPH
- 2021: 66.0 IP, 3.55 ERA, 3.73 xERA – 95.7 MPH
- 2022: 66.2 IP, 3.51 ERA, 3.29 xERA – 97.0 MPH
- 2023: 69.1 IP, 3.76 ERA, 4.70 xERA – 97.4 MPH
- 2024: 63.1 IP, 3.68 ERA, 4.31 xERA – 97.4 MPH
Employ Kyle Finnegan and you’re likely to get 65-70 innings, a 3.60-ish ERA, and a 97 MPH fastball. Without watching him closely, I can’t really tell you how he’s managing to succeed. But he … is?
As for the pitch-mix: Four-seamer (~67%), Splitter (27.2%), Slider (5.2%). He used to throw his slider 4x as often as he does now, coincidentally switching it the exact season his expected stats fell off the grid, so maybe the Cubs see an opportunity to optimize there.
Cubs Targeting Closers
Circling back to the beginning, I just want to remind you of this recent trend: In addition to Kyle Finnegan, the Cubs were recently connected (either speculatively or directly) to free agent relievers/closers Carlos Estevez (speculatively), Tanner Scott (speculatively), Jeff Hoffman (speculatively), Andrew Chafin (directly), and Kirby Yates (directly).
We also had Jon Morosi reporting that the Cubs are “one of the most active teams in the industry on bullpen arms.” So that’s clearly going around.
At this point, it seems pretty likely that the Cubs will wind up signing at least one free agent reliever who slots into the 7th inning or later, with perhaps a slight preference to someone with closing experience. Tanner Scott remains the biggest get of the offseason, so if you want to dream big, that’s your guy. But I don’t quite see that happening. Even still there are clearly other quality arms out there and I’m glad the Cubs are being more proactive about buttressing their bullpen early on.
