NEWSLETTER
The Chicago Cubs may be shortly landing their catcher to pair with Miguel Amaya next season.
Jon Heyman reports that they are working toward a deal with Carson Kelly, the timing of which would make sense following the recent Danny Jansen signing by the Rays:
From the outset of the offseason, the free agent catcher who got the ever-so-slight edge from me for the Cubs was Carson Kelly. He and Danny Jansen were the clear top two free agents in an admittedly very weak class, but Kelly was coming off the much better 2024 season (.238/.313/.374/99 wRC+), and has generally been the better defender throughout his career. It felt a bit like Kelly was the safer play, especially if you were looking to pair him with another catcher to take half of the starts.
Jansen ultimately got one year and $8.5 million from the Rays, having potentially turned down multi-year offers in favor of a bounce-back opportunity with a team where he might take most of the starts. The Cubs were reportedly involved in those talks.
For comparison’s sake, each of Jansen (29) and Kelly (30) became half-time regulars in 2019. Since then, here’s how they stack up offensively:
Very similar, though you’re probably getting more upside with Jansen, more recent success with Kelly, and a better glove with Kelly. You also get pretty significant traditional splits with Kelly, who hits lefties very well.
In this year’s class, Kelly might be the best/safest of the group. It’s not an impact move if the Cubs make it, but it’s a very good and steady one that improves the position to pair him with Amaya. Matt Thaiss, in this case, would be depth behind those top two. And as far as third catchers go, he’d be really good depth! Throw in some hoped-for Moises Ballesteros development and the Cubs could have an overall strength at the position as the season goes on.
More soon.
UPDATE: No deal done yet, but Jesse Rogers confirms that a deal is “close” between the Cubs and Carson Kelly.
Stray note: if they do get a deal done, I wonder if they’ll wait until later in the week to finalize. That way the Cubs would still have an open 40-man spot for the Rule 5 Draft juuuuust in case they wanted to take someone.
