NEWSLETTER
All things Juan Soto sucked up the oxygen last night, but I want to note a couple updates on the Garret Crochet rumor front that got mixed in.
The short version is that a few teams got a direct mention, and there’s more of a sense that a trade could happen this week:
The timing would make sense, as it’s not that difficult to create the through line from Soto’s decision to a Crochet trade: the teams that don’t land Soto now have huge money available to spend elsewhere in the market, and the best-available players are impact starting pitchers*. So maybe guys like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried see things heat up today and tomorrow, and maybe that takes a team or two out on Crochet. Then, the White Sox, having a more complete sense of the possible market, simply decide it’s time to pick the best offer.
*(Also possible: having added Soto on a monster contract, maybe the Mets are all the more motivated to land an ace who won’t have a huge contract, and now they push extra hard for Crochet.)
What does that market look like? Well, the teams that get the mention up there are ones we’ve heard before, with the Reds rumored multiple times as being a leading suitor. Then again, Gordon Wittenmyer has reported that the Reds’ talks with the White Sox preceded the trade for Brady Singer, and he does not expect them to re-engage.
The Brewers definitely have the need and probably the pieces, but are they just trying to put the screws to the Cubs and/or Reds?
Maybe the Red Sox are a team that pivots to Burnes or Fried now, and maybe the Yankees do the same? Or maybe that market gets moving and they land Crochet by virtue of that movement (they don’t HAVE to spend money, only, on acquiring an impact starter).
The Padres and Phillies come in for a mention at USA Today, but it sounds like the trade fit might not be perfect.
There are undoubtedly many, many other teams involved – the Orioles would make a lot of sense, for example, as having the need and the prospects to get it done. But really, I could say that about 10 other clubs with relative ease. You’re talking about a 25-year-old potential ace with two cheap years of arbitration remaining. Sure, there’s plenty of risk there, but the low salary is going to offset a lot of that. Thus, the interest and trade packages will be substantial.
The Cubs, of course, have been heavily mentioned in rumors, and are probably among the clubs urging the White Sox to make a decision. Unlike some of their other maneuverings, I’d argue that a trade for Crochet isn’t really predicated on the Cubs doing or not doing anything else – they’d just want to add him if they could get the right price. Indeed, they may prefer to get Crochet done first in a given sequence anyway.
But can the Cubs actually land Crochet?
The Cubs have one of the best collections of position prospects in the game, so they do have what would be necessary to match up on value. But my gut says that the hold up there is the White Sox want Matt Shaw or Moises Ballesteros as the headliner if dealing with the Cubs, and the Cubs aren’t willing to do it. And if the Red Sox were willing to include Marcelo Mayer, and/or if the Reds were willing to include Edwin Arroyo (players of that tier, I mean), then the Cubs probably can’t offer a better center piece unless they include Shaw or Ballesteros (acknowledging that opinions on individual prospects can vary!). The Cubs might be able to do better on volume, and I might even argue the White Sox would be wise to go that route given the state of their rebuild. But I could understand if the Cubs held the line on those two, and the White Sox turned elsewhere.
That is all my speculation, by the way. There’s reporting at the margins on some of this stuff as far as possible packages go, but none of it has been outright stated explicitly.
