NEWSLETTER
The Chicago Cubs of the more recent era rarely dip into the Rule 5 Draft. The system has been fairly deep for a long time now, and the Cubs have been just as good finding flyers in minor league free agency as they would in the Rule 5.
So when the Cubs made a selection yesterday, and a took a position player no less, I was caught pretty flat-footed. I tried to think quickly on the fly about the why of taking Gage Workman, and I wasn’t satisfied with where I landed. So I wanted to mull it some more, with some more time, while also sharing some additional bits on the Cubs’ new utility infielder.
The bigger picture thing you have to keep in mind with any Rule 5 pick is that they were available for a reason that goes beyond their organization simply not quite having enough space to protect the player. Even in the most crowded organization, if a team truly felt a player was big-league-caliber in 2025, they would find a way to make room on the 40-man roster (because that’s a LOWER bar than having the guy on the 26-man roster, as you HAVE TO following the Rule 5!). And even if not, some other club may well trade for the guy on roster protection day back in November – because then you have the guy on your 40-man WITHOUT any of the Rule 5-specific restrictions (for example, he’s gotta make your Opening Day roster or be offered back).
That leaves a relatively narrow band of players whom at least one org sees as good enough to take a swing on, but was not quite good enough for any other org – including that same org now drafting him – to prioritize going out and acquiring them in a very small trade back in November for a minimal return. His home org wants to keep him, but is willing to roll the dice on the Rule 5. His acquiring org wants to add him, but doesn’t want to give up a fringe lower-level prospect or whatever to get him. Narrow band.
The only caveat there? Maybe an organization’s circumstances changed in the intervening month such that they really wanted to make sure they had extra infield depth in the organization? Maybe some trade talks happened, for example? Maybe some better understanding of free agent prices emerged? Maybe you now know where certain budget chunks were going to go? So on and so forth. Even without games being played or moves being made, a lot could change in the month between the rostering deadline and the Rule 5 Draft.
Am I saying that’s what happened here with Gage Workman and the Cubs? Am I implying that I think the Cubs definitely believe they’re about to trade away a third baseman? I don’t think we can know that for sure, but it’s not too hard to pair up the rumors (UPDATE: And the Cubs did indeed make that big trade!). Listen, I’m not saying that Workman could “replace” Isaac Paredes as the starting third baseman. Instead, I’m saying only that, in a world where the Cubs – as of yesterday – thought there was a 50/50 shot they were going to trade Paredes in the coming days/weeks (or even Nico Hoerner), they may look at their OVERALL DEPTH on the infield and decide, you know what, just in case, we better add another guy. Workman was probably a guy they liked anyway as having a shot to contribute on their bench, so why not kill two birds with one stone? The risk is only $100,000 to make the pick and a 40-man roster spot taken up.
Throw in the fact that the Cubs were in the market for a lefty-hitting utility infielder for the bench anyway – and the possibility of more spending reevaluation – and maybe it all just came together to make perfect sense to draft Gage Workman. I can see it.
There may not be ONE explanation. It may be a lot of things working in concert that made picking up Workman yesterday, even with Rule 5 Draft restrictions, more sensible or achievable than it would’ve been to trade for him last month.
OK, so how about the player, himself?
Workman, who just turned 25, was a back-end top-30 prospect in the Tigers??? system who raked at Double-A this past season, subject to a number of comments and caveats:
Some of those comments and caveats should jump out at you. Last season was Workman’s third time reaching Double-A, and the first time he made it work offensively. And even as he did, the strikeout rate is alarmingly high for a player at that level in his age-24 season, and the BABIP was doing a whole lot of work to support the production. With those facts in mind, it’s not hard to see how the Tigers wouldn’t feel Workman was ready to make the jump to MLB.
There are some sizable responses, though. For one thing, the offensive production isn’t the whole of the value for Workman, who is a plus defender on the left side of the infield (presumably could also play well at second, if necessary), and he runs very well. He’s already got the starter kit of a useful up-down bench guy. Consider that the Cubs have spent a couple years filling that role with Miles Mastrobuoni (a guy they DID go out and acquire at the rostering deadline, by the way!), and he’s shown some value even though he hasn’t really hit in the big leagues.
As for the offense, the biggest thing to know is that 2024 was Workman’s first season abandoning switch-hitting and focusing exclusively on batting left-handed. That definitely can take some adjustment, and sure enough his numbers climbed as the season went on, to the point where he hit a ridiculous .325/.403/.558/171 wRC+ in July, August, and September.
To that end, you’d also note that he was expectedly terrible against lefties (.224/.289/.303), but blew up righties .290/.380/.509. When you’re talking about a future bench guy, those kinds of splits aren’t actually terribly concerning.
Also, the age thing might be a little overstated by me, given that 60% of his plate appearances actually came against older pitchers. He hit older and younger pitchers just about the same, so it’s not just like he was beating up on a certain type.
I always also think it’s worth pointing out on these super high BABIP guys: Workman did sport a whopping 25.0% line drive rate this year, so it wasn’t all luck and speed. He was also driving the ball. Having 18 homers is a good sign that he has the ability to make authoritative contact, which matters when you’re projecting BABIP up the ladder.
The strikeout rate, though, I have nothing too useful to add, beyond the fact that he seemed to make some improvements in 2024. Some guys just keep strikeouts at an elevated level on up the ladder – like, that level of strikeout is just baked wholly into their offensive approach, regardless of pitcher quality – but the vast majority of hitters see it accelerate as they face better pitching. And when a 24-year-old is near 30% in his third go at Double-A, it’s a serious concern. It’s probably the primary concern that the Tigers had when they left him exposed in the draft, and it is going to be the biggest question for the Cubs when evaluating whether he can actually contribute off the bench in 2025 at the big league level.
If, through Spring Training, the Cubs decide they can’t justify carrying him on the 26-man roster to open the season, they’ll have two options: they can either offer him back to the Tigers for $50,000, or they can try to trade someone to the Tigers for Workman’s full rights. If they like what they’ve seen, the Cubs will probably go that latter route – maybe with someone who is out of options but who might make the Tigers’ club? Or some lower-level flyer the Tigers are interested in, but who might get squeezed out of the Cubs’ org because of overall roster limits? It’s also possible the Cubs get this time to evaluate Workman, and decide he’s just not for them. We’ll see. Long way off from that.
More on Workman from MLB Pipeline:
???The most notable adjustment Workman made to take off at Double-A was abandoning switch-hitting. The 6-foot-4 infielder hits exclusively from the left side now, and while he still struggles against southpaws, the focus on a single side of the box has done wonders for his overall performance. Utilizing a quiet load, he???s cut his strikeout rate from 38.8 percent in Double-A last year to 27.5 percent this summer, and he continues to do a solid job of lifting the ball to the pullside in the air, allowing his raw power to play comfortably in games.
Workman always had a decent floor because of his above-average speed, overall actions on the dirt and impressive arm strength. He???s a solid defensive shortstop as is but has got the lion???s share of his work in 2024 at third base, where he???s an even better fit. His aggressiveness on the basepaths should make him a constant stolen-base threat too. Workman went unprotected and unpicked in last year???s Rule 5 Draft but has made a stronger case for protection this year as a late-blooming utility infielder.???
“This was a curious pick, not because Workman isn???t an interesting prospect or potentially useful big leaguer, but because the Cubs already have so many third basemen on their roster. Relegated to third base because some of his college teammates were really great shortstop defenders, Workman has successfully moved up the defensive spectrum as a pro; he is now an above-average shortstop defender and a 70-grade glove at third. Workman???s footwork and actions are incredible for a player his size. At a long-torso???d 6-foot-4, he has remarkable body control and an impact arm.
There are old scouting tropes about big-framed hitters and switch-hitters tending to develop late. Workman was both. He struggled to make contact for his whole career and struck out 38% of the time at Double-A in 2023, a terrifying rate. In 2024, at age 25, Workman made real progress in this area. He ditched hitting from the right side and his 27.5% K% was the lowest since he was at Low-A, and Workman hit a BABIP-aided .280/.366/.476 with 18 home runs back at Erie. He has above-average raw power but is still whiffing a ton, especially against breaking stuff, and will likely continue to strike out so much that it limits his big league role. Workman represents a defensive upgrade to Isaac Paredes but lacks obvious roster utility beyond that, barring trades.”
