NEWSLETTER
With folks traveling out of Dallas later yesterday and on into today, and people maybe exhaling a bit after a whirlwind Winter Meetings, I am not necessarily shocked that it’s been radio silent on the Kyle Tucker trade rumors. I think it’s still possible something comes together by the end of the week, but a lull in what we’re hearing on the outside was probably inevitable.
In the meantime, there’s just one thing I wanted to share as far as Isaac Paredes – a possible inclusion in the trade – and his unique hitting style goes.
Obviously we all know, thanks to the endless discourse following this past summer’s trade to the Cubs, that Paredes blends a high-contact approach, particularly when deep in counts, together with an opportunistic super-pull-heavy air approach. When he gets the chance, he tries to maximize what power he does have available by pulling the ball in the air and down the line. It’s worked exceedingly well for him, and it was the basis for questions about his fit at Wrigley Field. Down the line, of course, Wrigley is uniquely deep thanks to the outfield wells. In the power alleys, where Paredes doesn’t focus as much, Wrigley is uniquely shallow. As far as the power goes, it was an odd fit.
You know where Paredes’ power would be an ideal fit, though? The Astros’ home ballpark! Famously, the park has the short-porch Crawford Boxes out in left field, where guys with an extreme pull-it-in-the-air approach can sneak out several more homers than they might be able to otherwise.
Statcast actually measures how many home runs a guy would expect to have if he played all of his games in each ballpark, based on his actual batted balls in a given season. Overall, Wrigley Field would not have been a terrible ballpark for Paredes in his career – 56 expected home runs, as compared with his actual 72 is quite low, but there are a ton of parks that would’ve been in a similar range. Also, it was really the 2024 season, specifically, that dinged him: thanks in large part to the weather this year, Paredes would’ve been expected to hit just 13 home runs this season if he played all year at Wrigley. If you take away the weather component, his batted balls actually would’ve led to 20 home runs at Wrigley this season, given its shape, and 70 in his career. So, really, not that bad. It’s just that wind and temps were particularly brutal this season, making it hard on pretty much all bats.
The flip side of all that is Houston, man. Good gravy. Know how many homers Paredes would’ve been expected to hit this year in Houston? 26! It goes to 30 if you subtract the weather and just look at the shape of the park! His real number was 19! The career number based on ballpark shape is 88! It is by far the most favorable ballpark shape for his game! Because obviously!
Home runs aren’t everything. And the weather exists. And half of your games are on the road. So we have to remember these things and not go too far with these kinds of analyses. The only takeaway for now is just to confirm: yes, the Astros’ home ballpark would likely be VERY generous to Paredes, specifically, and it’s kind of obvious why they would want him in a Kyle Tucker trade, assuming they do not re-sign Alex Bregman.
Back to the Cubs, and the guy who very may well still be their starting third baseman on Opening Day.
We may find out in time that there was some Cubs galaxy-braining going on about Paredes’ value to other teams in trade – i.e., there are reports that the Astros really wanted him at the deadline and the Cubs beat them out – but, for the most part, I think the Cubs just liked the idea of getting a cost-controlled, high-contact, home-run power bat, who can play steady defense at third base. He also originated in the Cubs organization, so there was familiarity there. And if no trade happens, I think they’ll be happy to keep him. They did just acquire him four months ago, after all!
