NEWSLETTER
As ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski teased yesterday, the 2025 Chicago Cubs ZiPS projections are out today at FanGraphs.
And the very short version is that they think the Cubs are gonna be kinda awesome:
2025 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs https://t.co/A9zw3HhX4D
— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) December 19, 2024
I’ve been writing on this stuff from the outside for a long time, and I’m telling you that’s what a very good team looks like on a ZiPS projection of WAR. I am rubbing my eyes.
Indeed, recognizing how much this stands out, Szymborski kicks off his post by making it quite plain: “To get this out of the way, ZiPS absolutely adores Chicago’s lineup, from top to bottom and every which way around …. Indeed, the system’s love for the Cubs was so intense that, as with the 2023 Diamondbacks (a team ZiPS absolutely drooled over), I made sure to double-check that something funny wasn’t going on by projecting the team using an older version of ZiPS.”
Even the dude RUNNING ZiPS thought that maybe these projections were too rosy. So, yeah, if they strike you as a little awe-inducing, know that you’re not alone. That said, there are no bugs here. This is truly how ZiPS sees the 2025 Cubs.
Those projections are less striking on the pitching side, though they are hardly bad. The rotation looks about average (we knew that, and we knew the Cubs still wanted to add), but it is incredibly deep with “yeah, sure, ok”-type projections in the depth. The bullpen is missing big-time impact guys (again, we knew that), but ZiPS thinks it is INCREDIBLY deep with pretty darn solid guys. I guess in my gut that rings true, but we are probably so focused on the missing impact guys that we forget about how valuable quality depth is over a full season. Projection systems do not forget such things.
One other thing to remember: we often talk about how projection systems, through their dispassionate algorithmnity, can uncover hidden truths about a team or a player, where our eyes and hearts might otherwise be lying to us. Usually, this means warts. Or at least that’s what we nerdy fans usually focus on. But it is only fair to note the flip side: sometimes these systems see considerable hidden positives for a team that, for various reasons of frustration, we might not immediately see ourselves.
Here’s the full write-up at FanGraphs, and the full statistical take on every player. I’m going to dive in myself for a while and contemplate what I think. I need a little time to really go over this stuff! It’s just so surprising. And delightful.
