NEWSLETTER
Here’s an interesting new rumor for Sunday morning. According to Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic, the Chicago Cubs are one of the teams who’ve checked in on free-agent left-handed reliever Brooks Raley – he of a 2.58 ERA over his last 115.1 IP in the big leagues.
In fact, the Cubs are one of only two teams mentioned (with the Yankees being the other), which all sounds great. Of corse, there’s a catch. Raley, now 36, had Tommy John surgery in May and won’t be ready to pitch in games until (at least) the start of July. Nonetheless, he’s reportedly discussing multiyear deals with some clubs and is still a highly sought-after free agent.
Brooks Raley Wild Journey and Late-Career Breakout
The Cubs actually drafted Brooks Raley in the sixth round of the 2009 MLB Draft, and he debuted with them as a starter three years later. But after a short two-year MLB career, Raley moved over to the KBO, where he made 151 starts over five seasons. Which, hey, good for him. But even after all of that, the best of his baseball career hadn’t actually begun.
After returning to the States on a minor league deal with the Reds in 2020, Raley signed a two-year, $10M deal in 2021 with the Rays, who unlocked something (as they do). During his season in Tampa, Raley earned a 2.68 ERA over 53.2 innings of relief, striking out 27.9% of the batters he faced while walking only 6.8%. Hello.
The Rays eventually traded Raley to the Mets, where his success continued. As a 35-year-old left-hander in 2023, Raley posted a 2.80 ERA with a 25.8% strikeout rate. And that continued into last season, when he began the year with 7.0 scoreless frames in New York. But that’s when his elbow popped and he underwent Tommy John surgery.
So now, teams – including the Cubs – are looking to sign Brooks Raley to a multi-year deal. The idea would be to think of him as almost like a mid-season bullpen acquisition this year, before getting him for a full season in 2026 (the Cubs have signed rehabbing pitchers like that before – Drew Smyly, Kendall Graveman, and they were involved in the market for Liam Hendriks, among others). And if that is how it plays out, I’d be on board.
Obviously we don’t know exactly how he’ll return at his age and after surgery, but before he got hurt, Raley had become a legitimate left-handed weapon, as Rosenthal laid out:
Before his injury, Raley had established himself as a steady left-handed option in the back end of bullpens. Of the 10 left-handed relievers who faced at least 300 left-handed batters from 2020 until April 2024, Raley ranked first in strikeout rate (35.2 percent) and WHIP (0.93), among other categories. In 2023, he had a 2.80 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings.
This offseason, the Cubs have added Caleb Thielbar and Rob Zastrzyny to their exisiting in-house left-handed options (Luke Little), but there are question marks for each of those arms. Raley would be the most established option among them. So count me on board.
HOWEVER, Brooks Raley does not represent the sort of sure-fire, Day 1, late-inning reliever we all still believe the Cubs need to get before Opening Day.
Many of the Cubs’ recent decisions have pointed towards a constricting budget, so it’s more difficult to get on board with Raley if this is more of that. In other words: If they want to add him as an extra nice-to-have, that’s great. Truly. Let’s do it. He could be a really nice addition to a Cubs team we all hope/expect to be in contention come midseasons. But if he’s just another low-cost, high variance arm to more or less complete their bullpen picture that’s a problem.
Brooks Raley – The Breakout
We can dig into Raley more if and when the Cubs sign him, but at a high level, it seems he tweaked his arsenal when moving from Houston to Tampa Bay.
- Four-seamer usage drop: 7.1% –> 0.5%
- Cutter usage gain: 19.1% –> 23%
- Sinker usage gain: 15.1% –> 22.6%
- Slider usage gain: 28.7% –> 38.3%
- Changeup usage gain: 3.8% –> 19.6%
He’s not a guy who relies on velocity, so as long as his slider and changeup still play post-surgery, he’s a good bet to continue his newly-found, late-career success.
