Everyone is understandably looking for tea leaves in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes, and one of the most obvious ones we all pointed out to anticipate was the breaking of handshake deals with International Free Agent signings. If a team started dumping its 2025 IFA agreements, which are supposed to be officially signed on January 15, it could be a sign that they are confident they are landing Sasaki, and need to clear out pool space to make him an appropriate offer.
So did that just happen with the Dodgers? Their top reported prospect in the upcoming class just jumped ship to sign a bigger deal with the Pirates. So that’s it, right? Dodgers are getting Sasaki?
Well, hold on for a moment. First, the reporting around the situation:
Sources: The Dodgers have brought back to the market two of their highest bonuses for the upcoming 2024-25 international signing period: SS Darrell Morel (DR, $1.1M) and OF Orlando Patiño (VEN, $400K).
They currently have around $3.6M to bid for Japanese ace Roki Sasaki.— Francys Romero (@francysromeroFR) January 11, 2025
The timing of Roki Sasaki's decision, expected around January 20, has led MLB teams to adjust their international signings.
Some organizations have allowed committed players to explore other opportunities, but it’s fair to say that teams are not breaking agreements.— Francys Romero (@francysromeroFR) January 12, 2025
It’s happening. The fallout from Roki Sasaki in the international market has started.https://t.co/7MxEq3f74m— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) January 11, 2025
This all started because word broke that the Pirates had come to an agreement with Dominican shortstop Darrell Morel, after he’d been released of his commitment with the Dodgers. Since the Dodgers barely had any big-money IFA commitments already, you could say it was them clearing out their class to open up a full-size offer for Sasaki. And maybe it was.
But as Ben Badler writes, it seems more like a situation where players (and the trainers who steer their free agency) who are committed to the still-Sasaki-involved teams could be looking to jump ship for their own security. Indeed, Badler reports that there are still upwards of six teams think they still have a chance at Sasaki. The Morel situation could just be one early jump, and there could be others in the next few days in other organizations.
In other words, this looks less like the Dodgers having so much confidence in landing Sasaki that they dumped Morel, and more that they knew they couldn’t GUARANTEE to Morel that he would get his money on Wednesday. So he and his trainer understandably jumped ship for a bigger offer.
The other thing to remember here: it was probably always going to be the Dodgers for Roki Sasaki anyway. So it’s not like it takes tea leaves to speculate in that direction. If you’re a prospect who was committed to the Dodgers right now but caught wind of another organization that wanted to offer you more? You’d be completely irresponsible not to ditch your handshake deal with the Dodgers, because you know there’s a 90% chance you were never actually getting that money from them.
The better tea leaves in all this are on the other side: if January 15 arrives and teams actually complete all their handshake deals and exhaust their pool, well, then you can assume they know they are out on Sasaki. And if the deals aren’t completed that day, then you know two things (1) that team believes it still has a chance at Sasaki, and (2) that team is at risk for having prospects jump ship.
Which, by the way, leaves open the possibility of a worst-case scenario for an org like the Cubs: they are unlikely to get Sasaki, but what if they have to wait to see if they have a chance? And what if they can’t convince all their would-be IFA prospects to wait with them for a few more days, and they lose a couple top signings? And then, after losing those prospects, what if they don’t even get Sasaki! Oof.
It’s an even bigger oof because the scouting reports I’m seeing on the Cubs’ class at the top sure make it seem like they have multiple arrow-up guys. You’d absolutely trade them for Sasaki, but would you trade them for a 5% chance at Sasaki? That seems like the ACTUAL question. For now, it sounds like at least five non-Dodgers teams are willing to keep waiting on that small chance (you’d have to guess the Cubs are one of them), but will things change by the open of the IFA period on Wednesday? Might Roki Sasaki and his agent be kind enough to at least cut some teams by that day?