Just a little over a year after the Cubs brought him onto the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, the Cubs are bumping relief prospect Michael Arias off of the 40-man roster.
Today, the Cubs designated Arias for assignment to open up a 40-man spot to make the Colin Rea signing official.
Arias, 23, flashed extremely promising stuff at the lower levels of the minors in 2023 – a live fastball and a killer changeup, primarily – and that got him added to the 40-man after the season, lest he be plucked by a rebuilding club that wanted to stash him in their bullpen. The Cubs then converted Arias to full-time relief for 2024, which he split between Double-A and Triple-A with mixed results overall (4.77 ERA, 25.2% K, 16.8% BB, 40.4% GB), and most of the struggles coming at the higher level. The walks, in particular, were a problem.
Still, the Cubs have a whole lot of other pitchers on the 40-man who are in a similar tier, and Arias is still so young with so many options remaining. Moreover, he’s still ranked as the 18th best prospect in the Cubs’ system at MLB Pipeline. It’s more than a bit of a surprise that the Cubs are giving up on him so quickly, and it would be a big surprise if he could actually get through waivers.
That makes me wonder if the Cubs are going to try to get a small trade together first, rather than lose him for nothing. Indeed, it’s possible the Cubs chose to DFA Arias knowing in advance that they could find some trade partner out there for a modest price, or they already have a trade in place. (Dream scenario? IFA bonus pool space! The timing lines up, because you could DFA Arias today, and then officially trade him on Wednesday, when those pool slots become eligible for trade. It’s a very good time to have extra IFA funds, even if you’re not signing Roki Sasaki, since we know prospects may become newly available thanks to all that craziness.)
That is all to say, the Cubs now have a window of time to try to get some value for Arias. I have to believe he has some.
Otherwise, the Cubs will have to put him on waivers, and see if he clears. If he does, they can outright him to Iowa, where they would have him on what amounts to a minor league deal. That’d be a welcomed outcome, but a surprising one, unless there’s something in the scouting that suggests he just won’t be able to take the next step. Generally, you have to be a little wary of guys who succeed at the lower-levels based largely on a really advanced changeup, because that’s one way you can REALLY beat up on inexperienced hitters. You want to see that it still plays against older hitters, too, and sometimes you find out at Triple-A/MLB that it does not.
We’ll see what happens with Arias this week.
In the meantime, Rea is officially now on the 40-man roster, which is once again full.