You know the situation by now: 23-year-old Japanese ace Roki Sasaki is going to decide on his MLB organization in the coming days. The 2025 International Free Agency period opens up on Wednesday, January 15 (the earliest he can sign), and Sasaki’s posting window expires January 23 (the latest he can sign). The Cubs are among six or seven or eight teams with a theoretical chance at this point, but the Dodgers remain a heavy favorite, and the Padres just behind them.
To that end, we learned over the weekend that the Dodgers were allowing their top 2025 IFA would-be signees to find deals elsewhere if they can, and The Athletic reports the Padres are doing the same (and/or asking the prospects to wait a year and sign in next year’s class). The teams aren’t QUITE reneging on their handshake deals, but neither are they committing to the players that they will definitely sign them when the new signing period opens on Wednesday, January 15. Indeed, it seems like what is happening is that the teams with the best chance at Sasaki are saying: hey, we might need our whole pool for him, and if he chooses us, sorry, you’ll have to wait a year or go elsewhere. So if you want to just go now, we understand.
We haven’t heard anything like that about the Cubs and their projected class, but The Athletic’s piece suggests that there have been other teams involved that have done this (and we just haven’t heard), or might do so in the coming days if they feel they still have a chance at Roki Sasaki.
I’ll fall back on what I said this weekend: by Wednesday, although we may not know which team Sasaki is choosing, we are definitely going to know which teams believe they still have a chance. How? Because the teams that DON’T believe they have a chance are going to lock down their IFA class’s biggest names that day (which is what historically normally happens on the first day of the IFA period). So if you see your favorite team not finalize deals on Wednesday, it’s a pretty good guess that they at least believe they still have some chance at Sasaki.
The reverse is also true: if your favorite team announces a flurry of officially-inked top IFA signings on Wednesday, then you can safely assume that is that on their Sasaki pursuit.
Meanwhile, Wednesday could be crazy, even setting Sasaki aside. Because of all the signing-related uncertainty his situation causes, AND because of the possibility that involved teams may want to trade for IFA pool space, things could really get feverish even if we don’t hear about Sasaki’s decision on Wednesday (which we probably won’t).
Relatedly, you do wonder about the Michael Arias DFA today by the Cubs. He’s their 18th ranked prospect at MLB Pipeline, and in the tier of player you might expect to see moved this week for IFA bonus pool funds. I’m not saying that is definitely what’s happening here – it could simply be a scouting decision by the Cubs – and I am certainly not saying it’s tied to Sasaki directly. But because of Sasaki’s presence and the connected impact on so many IFA prospects, it’s probably a great week to have extra bonus pool space to work with.
Not only might you be able to use it on prospects who get dumped by teams waiting on Sasaki, and not only might you be able to pick off prospects who decide on their own to seek safer pastures, but you ALSO get the benefit of possibly signing guys for whom the scouting has changed in the last couple years since they originally committed. That’s how you can wind up with a relative bargain, but (1) those guys usually stick with their original commitment so they aren’t available, and (2) even if they are, teams like the Cubs have usually committed up their entire pool before the IFA period opens. This is potentially a unique opportunity on the whole market thanks to Roki Sasaki’s unique situation.
I suppose I’m just thinking out loud that, even if the Cubs aren’t going to get Sasaki, I hope they can use this situation to land some extra high-quality IFA prospects.
Back to Sasaki, though: do the Cubs still have a chance?
Well, it’s anybody’s guess at this point, but Ben Badler wrote about the latest, naming the four most likely landing spots for Sasaki as of today: Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, and Rangers. That said, the Cubs do sneak in for a healthy-sized mention in the Rangers’ section:
“There are other teams believed to still be lurking with the hopes of landing Sasaki, whether it’s the Cubs, Giants, Mariners or possibly another team. But if Sasaki does want to play on the West Coast, the Dodgers or Padres are probably more appealing than the Giants in terms of postseason readiness. The Mariners have one playoff appearance (2022) in the last 23 years and ownership that appears unwilling to spend much to change that. The Mets would seem to check a lot of boxes, but they now seem unlikely to sign Sasaki.
The Cubs haven’t been to the playoffs the last four seasons, but they can make a pitch that will change this year. They traded for a star outfielder in Kyle Tucker, though they dealt Cody Bellinger to the Yankees. They have two Japanese players who could help mentor Sasaki in lefthander Shota Imanaga and outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who shares an agent with Sasaki.”
Badler goes on to discuss how the Rangers might be the favorite among the non-Yankees, non-West Coast teams, but it kinda sounds like the Cubs would be next? So we’ll count them as 5th place?
I’m being a little cheeky, but it’s probably true that most would speculate the Cubs to be in that area. The problem is that nobody believes these are evenly-distributed chances. The Dodgers are an OVERWHELMING favorite, and the Padres’ chances probably gobble up most of the rest of the chances.
Meanwhile, The Athletic reports that the Blue Jays actually got a visit last week in Toronto, which is a surprise, but also lines up with what Jesse Rogers was saying regarding other teams getting visits and him not having heard about the Cubs getting a visit in Chicago. I don’t know that anyone believes the Blue Jays are a favorite to get Roki Sasaki, mind you, but the fact of a visit there to Toronto could mean bad vibes for other interested clubs who did not get a visit.
Obviously there’s always a chance that the Cubs did get a visit and it just hasn’t leaked yet. We can continue to dream on Sasaki this week, but my more realistic dream is that the Cubs, if they can’t get Sasaki, take advantage of the unique opportunity to put together a monster IFA class.