Well, we’ve officially moved up a rung on the Alex Bregman + Cubs rumor ladder. On January 3, Jon Heyman called the Cubs an “outside possibility” for Alex Bregman. Five days later, Bruce Levine theorized about the possibility of a short-term deal with Alex Bregman. And tonight, he’s taking it a step further. There have reportedly been talks. Not that it changes our thinking on the matter, but let’s start with the report.
Alex Bregman to the Cubs?
According to Bruce Levine, Scott Boras and the Cubs have had “casual discussions” on free agent third baseman Alex Bregman. The Cubs, Levine writes, are not interested in a long-term contract. Instead, he says, “the framework of a potential deal with the Cubs could look like a three-year contract with opt-outs after each of the first two seasons.”
In other words, the Cody Bellinger deal.
Bregman, you’ll recall, has been trying to find a big-money, long-term deal all winter. But he missed out on at least one opportunity, when he turned down the six-year, $156M deal from the Astros … who then quickly pivoted to a trade with the Cubs for Isaac Paredes (the trade that netted Kyle Tucker).
Now, with Spring Training approaching, Scott Boras looks to be pivoting to the short-term/opt-out heavy deal to which his clients often resort when they don’t find what they like (and a little sooner than usual, I’ll add). And at this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the sort of deal Bregman ultimately gets. HOWEVER, I would be surprised if it’s from the Cubs.
Consider for a moment, three realities pushing back against the idea of the Cubs adding Alex Bregman on a short-term contract.
- The financial cost. Although we thought the Cubs may finally be getting more aggressive this offseason after the move for Tucker (and the Bellinger salary dump), their actions since that trade have pointed to a reduction in payroll more than anything else. Adding Bregman – if it’s going to be a three-year deal, will likely cost them roughly $30M. I have a hard time imagining the Cubs doing that, when there are more pressing needs in the bullpen, the bench, and even the front of the rotation, if we’re just dreaming up hopeful possibilities. As of today, the Cubs CBT payroll sits at $198M according to Roster Resource. With their expected $10M reserve, that leaves only ~$31M of room to spend – and if that’s if they wanted to butt right up against it. In other words, a short-term deal for Alex Bregman would gobble up all of their remaining funds. I just don’t see that happening.
- The draft pick compensation. Because Alex Bregman received and declined the qualifying offer this winter, any team that signs him is subject to draft-pick compensation. The Cubs, because of their market size and recent spending, would have to forfeit their second-round pick, their fifth-round pick, the associated bonus pool slots, AND $1M in IFA bonus pool space. Would they do that for a good free agent who was going to stick around? Maybe. Even that is questionable for Jed Hoyer. But to do it for a guy that could opt out in one year? I doubt it.
- The positional room. I don’t doubt that for 2025, Alex Bregman is very likely to be much more valuable than Matt Shaw, but the Cubs have seemingly cleared room for Shaw to take over third base as soon as Opening Day. Maybe – maybe – they’d find a way to trade Nico Hoerner, moving Shaw to second, to make everyone fit. But that is another significant hurdle.
Taken together, those are three significant hurdles to even the START of this conversation. The circumstances that would have to play out for Bregman to wind up on the Cubs are sufficiently unexpected as to make this an almost-non-starter.
So why is this coming up at all? Well, one easy answer is leverage for Bregman.
Sure, maybe Jed Hoyer and Scott Boras really did have a call, but even Levine called it “casual.” Bregman is likely to have plenty of short-term/opt-out offers if he really wants, and from teams who could more easily fit him into their plans. The Red Sox, the Blue Jays, etc. There are other options out there. So maybe a little apparent pressure will help some other deal get over the finish line.
The other possibility? Leverage for the Cubs. I can confirm those existing reports that the Cubs are still considering a free-agent third baseman this winter, but his name is Yoan Moncada. Perhaps the Cubs are having trouble getting Moncada to commit, and this is simply their effort to demonstrate that, hey, they have other options, too. Moncada, although he plays the same position, wouldn’t be as much of a commitment in any sense of the word and could much more easily fit into the Cubs’ apparent 2025 limitations.
The only alternative is to believe that we are all way off on the Cubs’ spending intentions for the rest of this winter. Maybe, with Kyle Tucker around, they really are planning to just ball out, throwing caution to the wind of luxury tax penalties, short-term payroll costs, long-term stability and prospect development, etc… in other words, all of the things upon which Jed Hoyer has based his entire front office philosophy and M.O. And I, for one, do not believe that. So here I am sharing the report, but cautioning you against reading too much into it. Signing Alex Bregman would be fun and it would make the Cubs better, I just do not expect it to happen.