If you’ve been following along this offseason, you know two things are true: (1) Free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman has turned into something of a rumored possibility for the Chicago Cubs according to a trio of reports since the New Year, and (2) We here at Bleacher Nation find it almost impossible to imagine actually happening. There are just too many hurdles to overcome (financial cost, draft pick compensation, positional fit) and other explanations to keep in mind (leverage for Scott Boras against a different Bregman suitor? Leverage for the Cubs on a different third baseman? just the kinds of superficial conversations most teams have about most players, but this one happened to get reported?).
But it’s the middle of winter and I didn’t have anything else to write this morning … so why don’t we talk about Alex Bregman, the player, to understand what level of attractiveness he offers if the improbable actually does happen? I believe the comment section likes to refer to this as a farticle.
Alex Bregman – Career Stats and Awards
Although Alex Bregman is definitely not the superstar you may remember from 2017-2019, he has remained consistently good throughout his career.
- 2017: 123 wRC+, 19 HRs, 4.7 WAR
- 2018: 157 wRC+, 31 HRs, 7.9 WAR
- 2019: 167 wRC+, 41 HRs, 8.3 WAR
- 2020: 120 wRC+, 6HRs, 1.3 WAR (pandemic season)
- 2021: 114 wRC+, 12 HRs, 2.1 WAR (injured season)
- 2022: 137 wRC+, 23 HRs, 5.4 WAR
- 2023: 126 wRC+, 25 HRs, 4.5 WAR
- 2024: 118 wRC+, 26 HRs, 4.1 WAR
Alex Bregman won a Gold Glove for his work at third base in 2024, is a 2x All-Star, and has received MVP votes four times, including two top-5 finishes.
Nonetheless, as you can see, his overall offensive production last year was down to his lowest for a full season in his career. I am curious why that happened and what it means going forward.
Looking Under the Hood
So right off the bat, the biggest top-level red flag last season is his OBP. For his career, Alex Bregman has reached base at an exceptional .366 clip, but last year, that number drifted all the way down to .315, just barely above the league average.
The quickest explanation I can see is that his walk rate was nearly cut in half from 11.9% for his career to 6.9% last season. But that just pushes us one more question down the line: Why did his walk rate fall off? For that, we look to plate discipline.
Plate Discipline
Last season, Alex Bregman swung at 22.2% of pitches out of the zone, a good deal higher than his 18.6% career mark. Largely, that’ll do it! But I’m not so sure his once-discerning eye actually got too much worse. Instead, it seems as though he may have made an effort to be more aggressive overall (his zone-swing rate was also up significantly).
Likewise, he actually made even more contact on pitches in the zone last season and had a higher contact rate overall. That’s perhaps why his strikeout rate remained at an elite level relative to the league (13.6%). Indeed, his swinging strike rate and called strike rate were both better than his career marks.
Why the greater aggression, then? Well, one possible explanation is that he began more plate appearances by receiving a strike than usual (63.4% first-pitch strike rate last season vs 58.4% for his career). Maybe he was a little unlucky, or maybe pitchers were attacking him differently, but his bat-to-ball skills remain elite, so this does strike me as something he COULD adjust to next season.
Indeed, this seems like a good theory – check out how the peaks of his first-pitch strike rate match the valleys of his O-swing rate:
So Bregman was seemingly extending his zone a little bit when he was getting fewer early strikes, both of which would ding a guy’s walk rate. Now, obviously, this isn’t a good thing. But it’s at least a little understandable what was happening, and offers a little hope for that walk rate (and the OBP that follows) to improve once he adjusts to the league’s adjustment.
Contact Quality
Plate discipline is but one of the two main pillars upon which a batter is built. Contact quality is also important. Fortunately, for Alex Bregman, that actually generally improved last season.
Relative to his career, Bregman last season posted a better average exit velocity (89.1 MPH vs 88.8 MPH), a better barrel rate (6.2% vs 5.7%), and a better hard-hit rate (40.1% vs 37.7%). Meanwhile, his groundball rate (36.5%) was more or less identical to his career numbers and solidly above average while his line drive rate was effectively the same as it’s been since 2021. Perhaps the extra swings and contact on balls out of the zone weren’t good for his OBP, but he wasn’t turning those balls into the sort of weak contact that can drag down the AVG and SLG portions of a slash line.
I should point out, however, that for some not-yet-immediately-obvious reason, his expected SLG via Statcast was a good deal lower than his actual mark. It seems plausibly related to the drop in pull%, which actually could be a bit of a concern for slugging overall. There’s also the fact that it was significantly easier to hit homers in Houston than Chicago last season, as evidenced by that expected HR by park stat at Statcast (31 if all games were at Minute Maid, 26 if all games were at Wrigley). But Wrigley’s home run/park factor is notably all over the place year to year. You can’t really count on it one way or the other.
Defensive Metrics
Defensively, Alex Bregman was very good last season by the numbers, as he often is. In fact, last season was his highest-rated defensive year at third base, and what led to his first career Gold Glove. He’s not prime Nolan Arenado at third, but he’s very likely a positive defender there.
By Defensive Runs Saved, Bregman (+6) ranked 7th in MLB and third in the American League. And by Ultimate Zone Rating (+2.2), he ranked 9th and third, respectively. He was a positive defender by DRS in six of the eight season before that, too.
Compared to the defensive sh*tshow that was the Cubs’ third base situation in 2024, he’d represent an enormous upgrade.
Conclusion
But snapping back to reality, it’s important to remember that’s not what we should be comparing to. All but one player who covered 3B for the Cubs last season has been removed from the roster: Christopher Morel (579.0 innings at 3B), Isaac Paredes (426.1 innings), Nick Madrigal (138.0 innings), Miles Mastrobuoni (98.2 innings), Patrick Wisdom (92.2 innings), David Bote (85.1 innings).
In their place, the Cubs have set up Matt Shaw to take over, potentially with some early-season competition from a free agent to be acquired later (maybe Yoan Moncada).
And with the superlatively-gloved Nico Hoerner still entrenched at second base, there’s not an obvious spot for Shaw to move. Maybe there’s some series of events that sees Hoerner moved for pitching, but even that is but one of those big hurdles we mentioned above.
Nonetheless, Bruce Levine continues to promote the idea that the Cubs “will be in on” Alex Bregman if/when his market really drops to that one-year pillow or three-year + opt-out range of deal, so we at least can note and discuss.