Yes. Yes. Yes. YES. This is excellent news, my friends. According to Jordan Bastian (Cubs.com), Cubs top pitching prospect Cade Horton has already resumed light throwing off a mound and “is on target for a normal Spring Training.” YAHOOOOOOOOOO.
Great News for Cade Horton
That is HUGE, huge news. Sure, the Cubs may still elect to slowplay Horton to start the season (both for health/safety reasons, but also to limit his innings), but the fact that he is officially on target for a normal Spring Training is just an enormous, positive update for a matter that has been murky (at best) for months.
In case you forgot, Horton, 23, was the Cubs’ first-round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft and arguably the top organizational pitching prospect in about a decade (2.65 ERA over 21 starts in his professional debut after the draft, plenty of love from scouts and analysts nation-wide). Unfortunately, after knocking on the big league door with his promotion to Triple-A Iowa last May, a Grade 2 strain behind his shoulder slowed all momentum. And he didn’t throw a single pitch after May 29.
Though that wasn’t for a lack of trying. According to Bastian, Horton was trying to get back on the mound as quickly as possible, stopped only by reminders to keep the big picture in mind.
“I’m always a guy that’s wanting to go until I break,” Horton said. “So, [it was important] having those people around me to be like, ‘No, let’s do the smart thing. You have a whole career ahead of you.’
“That’s the blessing about missing the rest of the year,” said Horton, who focused on recovery and rehab after just nine outings between Double-A and Triple-A across April and May last season. “I’m feeling good and ready to go.”
But it seems the patience has paid off, because Cade Horton is already back on the field, throwing, and, again, on track for a normal Spring Training.
To further emphasize just how good of a pitching prospect Cade Horton has become, let me remind you that despite not throwing a single pitch after May 29, Horton popped up all over the most recent top prospect rankings and analysis. In fact, 4.2% of executives recently polled at MLB.com believe Cade Horton is the TOP pitching prospect in MLB.
Likewise, Horton received votes (1) as the potential breakout prospect of the year, (2) for having the best fastball, and (3) among the prospects with the greatest pitchability. Again, all after missing most of the season.
So What’s the Plan This Season?
Here’s my guess.
First, Cade Horton will slow play Spring Training as reported, perhaps even beginning his season a few weeks later than the I-Cubs’ first game. We can hope for an even sooner start, but I think this is a safe bet. From there, he’ll join the Iowa Cubs rotation as he builds up innings and looks to establish himself as a starter. And that’s when all bets are off.
Once, say, mid-June rolls around, I think Cade Horton will be in line for a promotion to the big league rotation (obviously, only if things are going well for him). Unlike some other recent pitching prospects (Ben Brown, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski), I do not think the Cubs will introduce Horton through the bullpen. He’s a starter through and through, and I think that’s how he’ll debut, whenever it does happen.
But don’t forget about the Cubs’ depth, at the moment, and the strategic pecking order.
The big-league rotation is already five members deep (Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea), and that’s before you get to Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Ben Brown, all of whom could contribute meaningful innings as starters this season regardless of where they start out.
Speaking of which, I tend to think Brown and Assad will begin the season in the big league bullpen, while Wicks starts the year in the I-Cubs rotation. And I think they’re all in line to get an emergency or fill-in start before Horton does early in the year.
But that’s all by design and kinda falls into the thinking against a relief-introduction for Horton. I believe the Cubs want (or should want) Cade Horton to have just the one big league promotion, straight to the rotation, where he should stick for many years to come. If that means waiting for the right opportunity, after he’s settled in at Iowa, so be it. Get this one right, and you might just have the most valuable asset in baseball – a dominant starting pitcher on a rookie contract.